Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Spain (99.9%)
Resolved: Jul 19, 2026, 11:23 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastSpain 99.9%+40.3ptLeader of 50 outcomes
Forecasters
1,234
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 days ago
StaleMar 7, 24, 3:25 PMJul 19, 26, 11:23 PM
Probability Timeline
Brazil6.2%
France40.3%
England22.6%
Argentina0%
Spain99.9%
Germany3.6%
Italy1%
Japan1.8%
Portugal6%
Croatia0.2%
New Zealand0.3%
Iran0.6%
Australia0.9%
Uzbekistan0.4%
South Korea0.9%
Jordan0%
Ecuador0.5%
Algeria0.1%
Egypt0.3%
Tunisia1.4%
Morocco3.1%
Paraguay1.2%
Colombia1.6%
Uruguay0.3%
Other0.6%
Mexico2.5%
Norway6%
Switzerland1.7%
USA 🇺🇸3.7%
Czechia0.1%
Ivory Coast0.5%
Netherlands5.1%
Türkiye0.7%
Iraq0.3%
Congo DR0.3%
Senegal0.5%
Belgium2.9%
Austria0.3%
Sweden0.2%
Canada0.4%
0%
0%
0%
0%
99.9%
0%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Spain
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall100% match · verified | Low | 99% | — | $271.7M | $1B | 8 days ago | Open → |
 Polymarket74% match · verified | Low | 100% | — | $25.7M | $0 | 7 days ago | Open → |
 Rothera93% match · linked | Low | 100% | — | $39.3M | $0 | 6 days ago | Open → |
 Limitless80% match · verified | Low | 100% | — | $695.3 | $0 | 7 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 100% | — | — | — | 7 days ago | |
| Manifold Markets90% match · linked | — | 99% | — | — | — | 7 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets90% match · linked | — | 100% | — | — | — | 7 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets80% match · linked | — | 100% | — | — | — | 7 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets82% match · linked | — | 58% | — | — | — | 8 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
Final: Spain vs Argentina
40.4 ptsClosed
Resolved
Spain (99%)
+39.5pt94.3%
-40.4pt1.9%
0.9%
+45 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1.5B
24h Vol$271.7M
KALSHIAlso available on Rothera
World Cup 2026: Winner
Closed
Resolved
Spain (100%)
100%
0%
35 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidity
Total Vol$39.3M
24h Vol$39.3M
ROTHERAAlso available on Manifold Markets
Which country will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Closed
Resolved
Spain (99.3%)
+42.1pt99.3%
-0.2pt0.2%
-41.9pt0.1%
+38 more outcomes
Community forecast140 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Which team will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Closed
Resolved
Spain (100%)
+40.9pt100%
0%
0%
+45 more outcomes
Community forecast141 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup?
Closed
Resolved
Spain (57.9%)
+42.4pt57.9%
-40.3pt40.1%
-0.4pt0.4%
+14 more outcomes
Community forecast62 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Which Team will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Closed
Resolved
Spain (99.7%)
+0.9pt99.7%
0%
0%
+40 more outcomes
Community forecast199 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Limitless
World Cup Winner
Closed
Resolved
Spain (99.7%)
99.8%
0.2%
22 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidity
Total Vol$40.2K
24h Vol$695.3
LIMITLESSAlso available on Polymarket
World Cup Winner
40.9 ptsClosed
Resolved
Spain (100%)
+40.9pt100%
-22.8pt0%
-39.0pt0%
+57 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityTight spreadLow liquidity
Total Vol$4.3B
24h Vol$25.7M
POLYMARKETRules
Which team / country will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- Top Related / Interesting 2026 FIFA World Cup Markets
- @/Mochi/2026-fifa-world-cup-prop-bets
- @/10thOfficial/which-team-will-score-the-most-goal
- @/CryptoNeoLiberalist/penis-at-fifa-2026-world-cup
- @/10thOfficial/who-will-perform-at-the-2026-fifa-w
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.7k99.9%POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YesKhighisgood8d ago
POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YesKhighisgood8d ago$1.6k99.9%POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YesNegative-Guitar8d ago
POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YesNegative-Guitar8d ago$2.7k99.9%POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YesJakethemuss8d ago
POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YesJakethemuss8d ago$1.2k99.9%POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YesJittery-Professor8d ago
POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YesJittery-Professor8d ago$5.0k99.9%POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes0x5cff…4d938d ago
POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes0x5cff…4d938d ago$2.6k99.9%POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YesZeopro8d ago
POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YesZeopro8d ago$1.4k99.9%POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yesflynn8888d ago
POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yesflynn8888d ago$24.6k99.9%POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yespkkc8d ago
POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yespkkc8d agoVolume trend
$276.1kJul 813d of dataJul 20
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Which team / country will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- Top Related / Interesting 2026 FIFA World Cup Markets
- @/Mochi/2026-fifa-world-cup-prop-bets
- @/10thOfficial/which-team-will-score-the-most-goal
- @/CryptoNeoLiberalist/penis-at-fifa-2026-world-cup
- @/10thOfficial/who-will-perform-at-the-2026-fifa-w