Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Spain
Resolved: Jul 19, 2026, 11:23 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastSpain 99.9%+40.3ptLeader of 50 outcomes
Forecasters
1,234
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 62 days ago
StaleMar 7, 24, 3:25 PM UTCJul 19, 26, 11:23 PM UTC
Probability Timeline
Brazil6.2%
France40.3%
England22.6%
Argentina0%
Spain99.9%
Germany3.6%
Italy1%
Japan1.8%
Portugal6%
Croatia0.2%
New Zealand0.3%
Iran0.6%
Australia0.9%
Uzbekistan0.4%
South Korea0.9%
Jordan0%
Ecuador0.5%
Algeria0.1%
Egypt0.3%
Tunisia1.4%
Morocco3.1%
Paraguay1.2%
Colombia1.6%
Uruguay0.3%
Other0.6%
Mexico2.5%
Norway6%
Switzerland1.7%
USA ๐บโ๐ธ3.7%
Czechia0.1%
Ivory Coast0.5%
Netherlands5.1%
Tรผrkiye0.7%
Iraq0.3%
Congo DR0.3%
Senegal0.5%
Belgium2.9%
Austria0.3%
Sweden0.2%
Canada0.4%
99.9%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Any other soccer league/tournament implements 4 quarters (2 hydration breaks) in the next year?
Manifold MarketsWill Ronaldo retire above the age of 43?
Manifold MarketsWhere will the 2038 FIFA World Cup be hosted (any option that hosts at least one match will resolve YES)?
Manifold MarketsWorld Cup 2030: Location of Final
PolymarketMessi to play for Argentina again after the 2026 WC by Dec 31, 2026
LimitlessUnited States wins the world cup by 2050
Manifold MarketsRules
Which team / country will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- Top Related / Interesting 2026 FIFA World Cup Markets
- @/Mochi/2026-fifa-world-cup-prop-bets
- @/10thOfficial/which-team-will-score-the-most-goal
- @/CryptoNeoLiberalist/penis-at-fifa-2026-world-cup
- @/10thOfficial/who-will-perform-at-the-2026-fifa-w
