PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (100%)
Resolved: Jul 7, 2026, 3:27 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current implied probabilityNo 100%
Market quality
27 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$13.4K
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
- / 0.1%
7d Change
-0.4 pts
Market data
Updated 19 days ago
StaleApr 13, 26, 10:16 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
No100%
Yes0%
0%
100%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Low | 100% | — | $13.4K | $0 | 19 days ago | |
 Manifold Markets77% match · auto | — | 100% | — | — | — | 20 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? [Polymarket]
Closed
Resolved
No (99.8%)
99.8%
0.2%
Community forecast263 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
- If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$3.4k99.9%POLYMARKETNoneutralwave2321d ago
POLYMARKETNoneutralwave2321d ago$13.6k99.9%POLYMARKETNo0x7131…29cc21d ago
POLYMARKETNo0x7131…29cc21d ago$7.0k99.9%POLYMARKETNoadonpoli22d ago
POLYMARKETNoadonpoli22d ago$30.0k99.9%POLYMARKETNonotsosure622d ago
POLYMARKETNonotsosure622d ago$5.0k99.8%POLYMARKETNodddtrips23d ago
POLYMARKETNodddtrips23d ago$3.0k99.8%POLYMARKETNoTheRealWarMonger23d ago
POLYMARKETNoTheRealWarMonger23d ago$15.6k99.7%POLYMARKETNoNihilisticMeerkat23d ago
POLYMARKETNoNihilisticMeerkat23d ago$1.3k99.7%POLYMARKETNoGyoo23d ago
POLYMARKETNoGyoo23d agoVolume trend
$13.4kJul 27d of dataJul 8
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
- If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.