PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityAugust 15 27%+15.5%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.5M
Liquidity
$87.9K
High liquidityBid / Ask
0.1% / 0.2%
Spread
100.0%
Wide spread7d Change
-3.6%
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jun 22, 26, 7:39 PMJul 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
August 1527%
Large trades
$1.0k87.0%Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? — NoJjw8h ago
$3.1k27.1%Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? — Yes0x0799…725c12h ago
$1.9k99.3%Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7? — Notianjiyuyunzhilu4d ago
$4.5k90.0%Nothoodr6d ago
$1.1k99.5%Nohosoon1237d ago
Volume trend
$1.5MJul 27d of dataJul 8
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On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole.
- A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation.
- A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.