PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityJuly 31 22%+17.0%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
89 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$103.7K
Liquidity
$48.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
21.0% / 22.0%
Spread
4.8%
Moderate spread7d Change
+13.0%
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jun 22, 26, 7:40 PMJul 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
July 3122%
Volume trend
$103.7kJul 27d of dataJul 8
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On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- A termination means a definitive end to the United States' participation in the negotiation process as a whole.
- A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation.
- A conditional withdrawal, in which the United States announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.