Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 17, 2026, 5:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastBibi netanyahu 37.5%-0.5%Leader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters
100
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 days ago
StaleOct 17, 23, 8:02 AMOct 24, 26, 8:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Bibi netanyahu38%
Compare venues· Gadi Eisenkot
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall78% match · verified | Medium | 52% | — | $516.9K | $2.3M | 21 minutes ago | Open → |
 Kalshi78% match · linked | Medium | 52% | — | $427.8 | $40.3K | 21 minutes ago | Open → |
 Futuur68% match · linked | Low | 53% | — | $0 | $3.5K | 21 minutes ago | Open → |
 Limitless78% match · linked | Low | 52% | — | $0 | $0 | 21 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets78% match · linked | — | 46% | — | — | — | 35 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 51% | — | — | — | 8 days ago | |
| Manifold Markets78% match · linked | — | 48% | — | — | — | 8 days ago | Open → |
 PredictIt69% match · linked | — | 3% | — | — | — | 21 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
5mo
+3.8%52%
-2.0%34%
-1.0%7%
+25 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$29.7M
24h Vol$516.9K
POLYMARKETAlso available on Kalshi
Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
2.0%1y
+4.0%52%
+2.0%36%
+8.0%10%
+15 more outcomes
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$70.8K
24h Vol$427.8
KALSHIAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
3y
46%
23.7%
17.4%
+13 more outcomes
Community forecast49 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Limitless
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after next election?
1y
52%
50%
50%
+2 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$3.7K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Israel election: Who will be the next prime minister?
5mo
48.3%
18.3%
18.1%
+4 more outcomes
Community forecast7 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on PredictIt
Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
9.0%3y
-9.0%42%
16%
-3.0%9%
+6 more outcomes
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITAlso available on Futuur
Israel’s next prime minister after the 2026 election
3mo
53%
37%
9%
44 • Low qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$1K
24h Vol$0
FUTUURRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.2k66.0%POLYMARKETWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — NoGeoStrategistPro7h ago
POLYMARKETWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — NoGeoStrategistPro7h ago$11.4k99.4%POLYMARKETWill Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — NoALONE3622h ago
POLYMARKETWill Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — NoALONE3622h ago$6.3k62.0%POLYMARKETWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — Noflawfence3d ago
POLYMARKETWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — Noflawfence3d ago$11.0k99.8%POLYMARKETWill Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — NoALONE366d ago
POLYMARKETWill Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — NoALONE366d ago$1.1k99.6%POLYMARKETWill Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — Nohklcrypt8d ago
POLYMARKETWill Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — Nohklcrypt8d ago$6.6k32.2%POLYMARKETWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — YesFussy-Countryside8d ago
POLYMARKETWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — YesFussy-Countryside8d ago$5.2k99.8%POLYMARKETWill Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — No0xe5da…03a111d ago
POLYMARKETWill Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — No0xe5da…03a111d ago$1.0k99.7%POLYMARKETWill Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — NoCarpenter13d ago
POLYMARKETWill Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — NoCarpenter13d agoVolume trend
$150Jul 162d of dataJul 17
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KALSHIActive in these topics
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Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.