Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBudget law is passed before deadline (end of March) 100%Leader of 16 outcomes
Forecasters
19
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+8.1 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleDec 1, 25, 5:35 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
100%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): When counting parties, alliances and parties will both be included in the full list (not just standalone parties).
- Update 2026-07-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Questions apply to the current elections, even if the final outcome is known after 2026 ends.
Open markets
Middle East
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-1.8pt66%
- October 31-9.0pt41%
- September 30-3.0pt26%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $18M
- 24h Vol
- $401K
POLYMARKETUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- December 31-3.0pt8%
- November 30-2.0pt6%
- October 31-1.0pt4%
+6 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Before Jul 1, 2027+2.0pt47%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-2.0pt40%
- Before Jan 1, 2027-4.0pt24%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-4.0pt36.7%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-1.0pt22.4%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt11.2%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- August 22+1.1pt98%
- August 2595%
- August 31-0.5pt86%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by which date?
- August 310%
- August 150%
- Total Vol
- $22.7M
- 24h Vol
- $118.3K
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Al-Riyadh vs Al Nassr
- Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by which date?
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will Iran target a Arab country on?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Israeli Politics 2026 Prop Bets [add your predictions]?
- Manifold Markets prices Budget law is passed before deadline (end of March) at 100% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does Israeli Politics 2026 Prop Bets [add your predictions] resolve?
- Israeli Politics 2026 Prop Bets [add your predictions] is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Israeli Politics 2026 Prop Bets [add your predictions] settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): When counting parties, alliances and parties will both be included in the full list (not just standalone parties).