2026 political predictions (add your own)
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsEuropeCrime & JusticeAIGeopolitics2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastThe leader of a country will die 100%Leader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters
16
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 29, 26, 11:49 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- Each option resolves independently to YES or NO based on events starting from today (30th May) through to the end of the year.
- the named outcome: Resolves YES if a head of state or head of government (e.g., President, Prime Minister, Ruling Monarch, Supreme Leader) of a sovereign nation dies while in office during 2026.
- A figure in the Epstein files is prosecuted for wrongdoing: Resolves YES if any individual named in the official documents released is formally arrested, indicted, or criminally charged in connection with the files.
- the named outcome: Resolves YES if a serving president of any sovereign nation is killed in a violent, politically motivated attack.
- the named outcome: Resolves YES if a criminal trial formally begins proceedings in the International Criminal Court during 2026.
