Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
2.5% (24h)GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East5d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityUnited States 12%-2.5%Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$9.7K
Liquidity
$144.7K
High liquidityBid / Ask
10.0% / 13.0%
Spread
30.0%
Wide spread7d Change
-9.0%
Market data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Jul 1, 26, 10:35 PMJul 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
United States12%
Volume trend
$9.7kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
- For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman.
- Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.