Manifold Markets
Play-money prediction market where anyone can create and trade markets using mana, a virtual currency that can never be cashed out. No identity check is needed to join.
Visit Manifold MarketsAvailability
Forecast or play-money source; trading eligibility does not apply.
KYC / Identity
No identity verification required
Methodology & Access
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Settles in
Mana (play money)
Market type
Limit orders + AMM (CPMM)
Live Stats
Open markets34,444
Total markets49,909
Participants965,186
Avg forecasters/question19.8
Avg outcomes/market4.0
Resolution rate31%
Last updatedOct 21, 2026, 12:20 AM
Top Categories
1. One-Off31317 Open markets
2. Politics6266 Open markets
3. US Politics5371 Open markets
4. AI5314 Open markets
5. Tech5024 Open markets
Resolution history
12,161 resolved markets · since 2022 · 100% provider-timestamped
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Related reading
Open markets
MANIFOLD MARKETSBy the end of 2050, what will my best guess be for the number of people that have died from climate change since 2000?
- 1M-10M-2.6pt22.7%
- <10K (includes negative numbers)19.7%
- 10M-100M-14.0pt18.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $127.9
- 24h Vol
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETS(Week 4) NHL 2026-27 Mega-Market: All Games 🏒
- Maple Leafs beat Blue Jackets (10/20)+58.0pt98%
- Hurricanes beat Canucks (10/20)73.5%
- Avalanche beat Predators (10/25)+1.0pt65%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.4K
- 24h Vol
- $10.2K
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhen will Voyager 2 stop transmitting any scientific data?
- 2028-2.3pt11.1%
- 2027-3.1pt10.2%
- 2026-0.7pt10%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $54
- 24h Vol
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill this question get 111 traders in 555 days? (October 23, 2026) UTC
- 10 traders in 10 days (April 26)100%
- 20 traders in 20 days (May 6)100%
- 30 traders in 125 days (August 19)100%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $13.5K
- 24h Vol
- $1.3K
MANIFOLD MARKETS🏀Women's National Basketball Association (WNBA) 2026 Regular Season Games Live (plus playoffs)
- 05/08 6:30 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against the (Toronto) Tempo?100%
- 05/08 9:00 PM: Will the (Golden State) Valkyries WIN against the (Seattle) Storm?100%
- 05/09 12:00 PM: Will the (Dallas) Wings WIN against the (Indiana) Fever?100%
+260 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $73.6K
- 24h Vol
- $1.4K
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhich storm names used in the 2026 North Atlantic Hurricane Season?
- Arthur100%
- Bertha100%
- Cristobal100%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.4K
- 24h Vol
- $105.4
MANIFOLD MARKETSAs of 1/1/2027, which fund manager will have the largest fund dedicated to the PE secondary market?
- Ardian32.8%
- Apollo-1.7pt6.5%
- Lexington-1.1pt2.5%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $34
- 24h Vol
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSGas Price on October 26
- 4.1999 or more?-42.0pt48%
- 4.2199 or more?-63.0pt17%
- 4.2399 or more?-56.0pt12%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3.9K
- 24h Vol
- $2.4K
MANIFOLD MARKETSWho will win DEATH BATTLE: Naruto vs Luffy? (Naruto vs One Piece)
- Naruto+38.2pt69%
- Luffy-38.2pt31%
- Total Vol
- $12.7K
- 24h Vol
- $6.1K
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhat percent of people will be micro-chipped by 2040?
- 0%14.7%
- 100%-3.9pt13.4%
- 1%7.8%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $27
- 24h Vol
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSWho will be elected President of France in the 2027 presidential election?
- Marine Le Pen-34.7pt48.4%
- Édouard Philippe+10.1pt18.1%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon+7.8pt10.2%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $759.4
- 24h Vol
- $217.9
MANIFOLD MARKETSIn year 2030, what will the general US population think of the effectiveness and necessity of the measures the government took against the COVID-19 in years 2020-2022?
- Partisan split; Ds think measures were effective & necessary, Rs think it was a big government conspiracy. Overall 50% think policies went well, 30% too far, 10% not far enough.15.8%
- mRNA vaccines turned out much more dangerous than expected-2.7pt14.5%
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KtJJC0nWs9s South Korea, China, Thailand, Vietnam, etc. will be viewed as having WORSE responses than the U.S. India will be praised, though.-0.6pt1.4%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25
- 24h Vol
- —
- Georgia Senate: which counties will Jon Ossoff win?
- Barcelona VS Real Madrid | Laliga | 25 October 2026
- What will be the most streamed song on Spotify this week?
- If X is true, will Democrats get a majority in the Senate in 2026?
- SF Supervisor D8 Election: Manny Yekutiel First round position?
- Which player will lead the league in receiving yards in the 2026 regular season?
- Who will win Best Actor at the 2027 Academy Awards?
- How many Falcon 9/Heavy launches will SpaceX conduct in October 2026?
- Who will create the first AI model to generate a high quality movie before 2028?
- Which Nov 2026 California ballot propositions will pass?
- Which Old School Runescape player will get the first solo completion of The Fractured Archive?
- Alberta Referendum vs Charles III US Visit - 2026
- US Average Gas Price on October 26 2026?
- When will a person who was not screened or genetically modified as an embryo file a lawsuit against their parents for not doing so?
- Who will win the 2026 US Women’s Chess Championship?
- Which team will win the WNBA championship this season?
- Who will be the next Patriarch of Moscow and all Rus' after Kirill?
- Who will be the next Mayor of Croydon?
- Who will be my most streamed Spotify artist in October 2026?
- When will next codex reset occur?
- What will Elon Musk do in 2027? [ADD RESPONSES]
- Which words will Trump say out loud between midterm election night (Nov 3, 7 PM ET) and Nov 5, 2026?
- What will be the MAX yield produced by my bell peppers 🫑 ?
- Which party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Georgia's 7th District?
- Who will be in the Israeli government following the next elections?
- Elon Musk Giving Shares to the Public (props)
- F1 2026 Prop Bets United States 🇺🇸 (Austin, Circuit of the Americas) Grand Prix [LIVE, Add answers]
- Which NFL team will be the last to suffer a loss in the 2026-2027 season? (Last undefeated team)
- Australia vs New Zealand Test Series Megamarket
- For which of the Millennium Prize Problems will the Million Dollars be taken ?
- October 2026 AI model releases
- NZ Election: National Party # of seats?
- Who will win 2026 MLB ALCS? ⚾ (American League Championship Series)
- When will the next Avengers film release?
- What will TSMC market cap be at the end of 2027?
- Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime by which date?
- Who will be elected mayor of Toronto in 2026?
- First House Minority Leader of the next Congress?
- What year will Earthblade be released?
- Price of gas on Election Day?
- Which of these websites/apps will be sold or cease to exist by end of 2028? [Add answers]
- Which names will be used for hurricanes in the 2026 Hurricane Season?
- Who will win the Scott Alexander 2026 Book Review Contest?
- When will Yap use a recommendation engine instead of just showing newest posts?
- Which NFL teams will have 12 or more wins in the 2026-2027 regular season?
- Australia vs South Africa. 2nd Test Megamarket
- What’s the least impressive thing you’re very sure AI still won’t be able to do before August 2027? [read description]
- 2026-2027 Calder Trophy
- When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?
- Who will be the new Ontario Liberal leader?
- Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?
- What will be the generic ballot on election day 2026?
- What will be the Top EU company by market cap at the end of 2026?
- 2026 Ohio Governor election winner?
- 2026 NCAAF: Which team will win the Mountain West Conference Championship?
- 2026/27 UEFA Champions League Top 8
- How many successful SpaceX launches in October 2026 UTC
- When Anthropic will release Jev/DecisionAPI alternative?
- MLB Season Prop Bets
- Israel election: Who will be the next prime minister?
- How high will the US national average gas price get in 2026?
- Best Prompt Engineering News Source (Permanent)
- Who will win the Ballon D’Or 2026?
- Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets, Oct 21
- Who will be the next White House Press Secretary?
- Global Average Temperature 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)
- Maine Senate Margin of Victory?
- Which RB will lead the league in rushing yards in the 2026 regular season?
- When will OpenAI hold its IPO?
- Who will win the Ballon d'Or 2026? 🏆⚽
- Taylor Swift @ Kansas City Chiefs Game Tracker
- Which sports will @ManifoldSports automate before 2027?
- When will a person who was screened or genetically modified as an embryo file a lawsuit against their parents for doing so?
- Which country will win the Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026?
- Who will win Nuevo Leon's 2027 Gubernatorial Election?
- What will be the next year North Carolina votes for a Democratic presidential candidate?
- Texas Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026?
- 3rd largest company end of October 2026?
- Which party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Arkansas' 2nd District?
- On the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, to what levels will the 2026 Atlantic season storms reach?
- Which week will Anthropic's IPO prospectus (Form S-1) go public on SEC EDGAR?
- Will Lindsey Graham be Reelected?
- Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia provincial election?
- What team will win the 2026 ACC Football Conference Championship game?
- How many seats will the People's Party get in the next Spanish general election?
- NZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?
- San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons, Oct 25
- Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs, Oct 20
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Pages on this venue that earned search visibility, with their outcomes.
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