Manifold Markets
Play-money prediction market platform where anyone can create markets on any topic. Uses Mana (M$), a free virtual currency. High market breadth makes it a strong signal for crowd forecasting on niche topics.
Visit Manifold MarketsAvailability
Forecast or play-money source; trading eligibility does not apply.
KYC / Identity
No identity verification required
Methodology & Access
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Settles in
Mana (M$)
Live Stats
Open markets15,880
Total markets29,726
Participants731,819
Avg forecasters/question25.1
Avg outcomes/market4.6
Resolution rate47%
Last updatedSep 17, 2026, 1:02 AM
Top Categories
1. One-Off13026 Open markets
2. Politics3419 Open markets
3. AI2937 Open markets
4. Tech2597 Open markets
5. US Politics2524 Open markets
Resolution history
10,738 resolved markets · since 2022 · 99% provider-timestamped
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Related reading
Open markets
MANIFOLD MARKETSNFL Week 1 - Prop Bets
- At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose100%
- Taylor Swift in Attendance to Any Game100%
- Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game100%
+42 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $46.3K
- 24h Vol
- $1.5K
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhat company or institution will win the XTX AIMO Prize?
- Nobody+58.0pt70.4%
- Open AI-29.7pt12.3%
- Google Deepmind-26.1pt9.3%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $396.2
- 24h Vol
- $150
MANIFOLD MARKETS[Holostars 3rd Generation] Which talent will leave Hololive last?
- Aragami Oga+53.4pt94.4%
- Kageyama Shien-53.4pt5.6%
- Total Vol
- $2.8K
- 24h Vol
- $2.7K
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhen artificial general intelligence (AGI) exists, what will be true?
- AGI has a significant detrimental effect on Earth's climate.+50.9pt83.5%
- More than one AGI individual exists at the time the public finds out that AGI exists.80.3%
- AGI attempts to make humans more like AGI.66.2%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $352.3
- 24h Vol
- $45.5
MANIFOLD MARKETSMandarin Chinese translation of "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" appears when?
- 2027-01-01 to 2027-06-30+50.1pt72.1%
- 2027-07-01 to 2027-12-31-12.1pt9.9%
- No translation is published before 2028-12.1pt9.9%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $481
- 24h Vol
- $340.4
MANIFOLD MARKETSMajor League Baseball Games ⚾️ (LIVE)
- Wednesday 3/26, 8:05 PM: NYY Yankees WIN at SF Giants100%
- Thursday 3/27, 2:20 PM: WSH Nationals WIN at CHC Cubs100%
- Thursday 3/27, 4:10 PM: BOS Red Sox WIN at CIN Reds100%
+2204 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $10.7K
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhat colors will I eat today?
- Brown+39.8pt89.8%
- White+39.8pt89.8%
- Green+39.0pt89%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1K
- 24h Vol
- $1.1K
MANIFOLD MARKETSSpaceXAI Compute Futarchy
- Will SpaceXAI be the first to achieve AGI, if they get another 1GW+ of compute before the end of 2027?-38.7pt11.3%
- Will SpaceXAI be the first to achieve AGI, if they do not get another 1GW+ of compute before the end of 2027?-44.1pt5.9%
- Total Vol
- $240
- 24h Vol
- $240
MANIFOLD MARKETSWho is behind Union Alpha, the new free LLM on OpenRouter? [Add Answers Enabled]
- OpenAI+1.5pt11.5%
- Microsoft-39.0pt11%
- Mistral AI-0.5pt9.5%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1K
- 24h Vol
- $1.1K
MANIFOLD MARKETSWho will be the winners of Manifold Prize Drawing #31
- @Yuna+35.9pt85.9%
- @JasonMendoza2008+26.0pt76%
- @ChristopherRandles+8.0pt58%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $767.5
- 24h Vol
- $788.4
MANIFOLD MARKETSwho be the new operations contributors at hack club?
- rowan+34.0pt84%
- lynn (headpatsyou)-11.5pt38.5%
- sahil-11.9pt38.1%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.8K
- 24h Vol
- $1.8K
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhat will the US average gas price hit in September 2026?
- 4.300 or higher?100%
- 4.350 or higher?100%
- 4.450 or higher?+31.9pt98.5%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.7K
- 24h Vol
- $315.5
- Who will win the CA-4 house election?
- Which teams from La Liga will be relegated to La Liga 2? (2026-2027)
- When will Kamala Harris announce run for presidency for the 2028 election?
- When will the AI bubble crash?
- Will AGI or widespread commercial nuclear fusion be developed first?
- What are the genders of my fraternal twins?
- When will the next full episode of Knights of Guinevere be released?
- Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?
- Who will win #1 Gold Medal in the 2026 Indonesia National Informatics Olympiad?
- Who will be the Contestants for Nash Pit: The Overhang 2026? [Add answers!]
- [Holostars UPROAR!!] Which talent will leave Hololive last?
- Who will win the General election for CA-07?
- Copa Libertadores: Winner
- How many pitchers will log 200 or more innings pitched during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- Who is behind Union Alpha, the mysterious new frontier LLM on OpenRouter?
- Which game will win Game of the Year at the Game Awards 2026?
- Fed decision in December?
- How many pitchers will pitch multiple complete games in the 2026 MLB regular season?
- Am I going to promote, demote, or remain in my league (season 41)
- Will Chatgpt-type chatbots become permanent in our lives permanently before 2100?
- What would be true about the first Manifold question to be featured in an r/all post? (Reddit's daily top content)
- When will Aaron Rodgers retire from the NFL?
- Which main party will form a Government after the 2026 New Zealand General Election
- In what order will the remaining Millennium Prize Problems be solved?
- Who will be the Indonesia National Mathematical Olympiad 2026 absolute winner?
- When exactly will Anthropic IPO?
- Will we see the first crypto trillionaire by 2030?
- Fed rate hike by...? [Polymarket]
- Which captain's team will top the money list for the 2026 Your Golf Tour regular season (YouTube golf)?
- By when will the Boom Overture make its first supersonic passenger-carrying flight?
- Who will be the Prime Minister of Australia after the next federal election?
- What Month in 2026 Will Anthropic IPO in?
- Which team will win season 19 (Japanorama) of Jet Lag: The Game?
- Steam Deck 2 (or next version) More Info When?
- 2028 Colorado Senate Democratic Primary Winner?
- San Francisco CD 11: Scott Wiener - Connie Chan margin, November 2026
- Brazil 2026 Election: Who will be elected State Governor in Ceará (CE)?
- Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?
- What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2027
- How will Manifold die?
- Fed decision in October?
- What Team will win the 2026 Big Ten Football Championship Game?
- Which 2026 NEWSMAKER will run for president in 2028
- In which US states will hurricanes make landfall this Atlantic season?
- Who will win the 3150 mana prize for the 2026 NZ election challenge?
- Price of Bitcoin at the end of 2026
- When will Donald Trump lose power?
- Which city will be the next to get an NBA basketball team?
- Largest company end of 2026?
- How many markets will @ManifoldPolitics create in September 2026?
- Who will win 2026 MLB NLCS? ⚾ (National League Championship Series)
- Who will win the Super Ballon d'Or?
- Best Video Generation Model (by company/organization) EOY 2026
- Where will the US attack in 2026? [add your answer]
- When will Trump be impeached next?
- Podium Sitters of WRC Rally Italia Sardegna 2026
- Which NFL team will be the last to secure a regular season win?
- First fully successful Starship v3 flight?
- Grok 5 (xAI) release date
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by ...
- What will we name our second kid?
- How many Democratic Senators will win their primaries in 2028?
- How many successful SpaceX launches in September 2026 UTC
- Which thresholds will the S&P 500 hit in 2026?
- For which year will Space X revenue be bigger than NASA budget?
- How many grand slams will Novak Djokovic win in total?
- Which coalition will govern Germany after the next federal election?
- When will Gavin Newsom announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election?
- How many hours of sleep will I average per day in September? [WITH UPDATES]
- What month will be most active in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
- Brazil 2026 Election: Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
- New Zealand Election 2nd Place (Polymarket)
- Which "Almost Impossible" feat will be accomplished next?
- Trump vs Anyone Else. Who’ll be impeached first?
- Which party will Richard Hanania finally endorse in the 2028 U.S. presidential election?
- Leader of Iran at end of 2026?
- Which living current/former US president will die first?
- By which Flight of Starship will it reach orbit?
- Who will be the next White House Press Secretary?
- Maine Senate election result? (Collins, Jackson, Bellows)
- Who controls Congress after the 2026 Midterms?
- Will Democrats win Iowa in 2026?
- Largest company end of September 2026?
- What NFL team will Arch Manning play for?
- The Shame Market: Who will finish last in the Masters League in Season 41?
- Who will be in the TOP 3 of the Manifold Market Masters League Season 41?
- Who will be favourite on election day to win the Texas senate election?
- 2026 Brazil Presidential Election Winner?
Markets people searched for
Pages on this venue that earned search visibility, with their outcomes.
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- Name a piece of festival etiquette everyone should know. (Bilt Rent Free Sep 1, 2026)Sep 1, 2026
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- Quem será o Bola de Ouro da 7ª edição da Copa Gosa?
- Who will win the California State Assembly 12th District Seat?
- What % of Americans will cite computers/technology as the US's top problem by Dec 31, 2026? (Gallup)
- Name a city with the craziest sports fans. (Bilt Rent Free Aug 1, 2026)Aug 1, 2026
- Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026
- Name a reality show where romance seems more like a competition. (Bilt Rent Free Aug 1, 2026)Aug 1, 2026
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- Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals?
- 🇪🇸ESP vs 🇦🇹AUT [World Cup '26]Jul 2, 2026
- In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
- who will win IIT (Isobowl Invitational Tournament) HS Division - add your teamAug 30, 2026
- Will Daniel Lord still be living in a Tesla by the end of October?
- 🇨🇴COL vs 🇨🇩COD [World Cup '26]Jun 24, 2026
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- IMO 2026 Bronze Cutoff?Jul 19, 2026
- Quem ganhará a Copa Gosa?
- Rogue AIs before 2028?
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? [Polymarket]
- Which team will win ARML 2026?May 30, 2026
- Who will be Andy Burnham's Chancellor at the end of 2026?
- Will we get AGI before 2033?