Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNot accepted anywhere by EOY 2026 55.9%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
3
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleApr 10, 26, 3:20 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 4:19 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Where will this paper be accepted? (Black Mirrors:CPT-Symmetric Alternatives to Black Holes by Tzanavaris, Boyle, Turok)
Manifold MarketsIn which journal will this paper be accepted in 2026? (Milos and Pérez)
Manifold MarketsWill we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?
Manifold MarketsLightlike singularity in black holes overthrown by ?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRules
This market refers to the paper "Do Black Holes Exist?" by Leonardo Modesto, Edoardo Rattu.
- An answer resolves to Yes if the paper is accepted to be published in that journal before the end of 2026.
- (The paper does not have to be published by the end of 2026; it only needs to be accepted.)