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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Tech
  3. Which months of 2026 will there be a Starship–Superheavy launch?
Manifold Markets

Which months of 2026 will there be a Starship–Superheavy launch?

TechOne-OffSpace6mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
January 0%
Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters

40

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated yesterday

Stale
Sep 24, 25, 3:04 AMJan 1, 27, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

June1%

Rules

"Launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines.

Manifold Markets
  • Only launches planned to go to space (i.e. >100km altitude) count.
  • Relevant timezone, for determining which month a launch is in, is local time at the launch site.

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Manifold Markets

When will Starship flight 15 happen?

$808
Before 2026-12-01: 38.5%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

By when will Starship deploy a payload bigger than a Starlink?

$399.7
2027-06-01: 30%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

SpaceX market cap on December 31 2026?

$300
$1trillion or below: 4.6%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

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Rules

"Launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines.

Manifold Markets
  • Only launches planned to go to space (i.e. >100km altitude) count.
  • Relevant timezone, for determining which month a launch is in, is local time at the launch site.