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Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:24 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
May 100%Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
55
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-1.9 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleSep 24, 25, 3:04 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?
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PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?
KalshiThird-best AI Lab end of November?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiRules
"Launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines.
- Only launches planned to go to space (i.e. >100km altitude) count.
- Relevant timezone, for determining which month a launch is in, is local time at the launch site.