Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOther 37.1%Leader of 19 outcomes
Forecasters
41
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-16.9 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleSep 15, 23, 5:01 PM UTCJul 2, 30, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will be the highest magnitude of an earthquake near the Phlegraean Fields in italy (Campi Flegrei) in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Alok Singh, Nate Bottman, Ryan Alweiss, or Elliot Glazer ever win the Alternative Fields Medal?
Manifold MarketsWill four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketRules
Each winner resolves to 25% assuming there are 4 winners.
- Probability mass is distributed evenly among all winners.
- This will resolve to the real name of the winners, nothing else.
- If someone puts a duplicate option, it will resolve to the first option.
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+1.2pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-41.6pt48%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $265.8K
- 24h Vol
- $109.9K
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028+1.0pt13%
- Before 2027+0.2pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $126.9K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+0.6pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $9.3K
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt48%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
- Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals??
- Manifold Markets prices Other at 37% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals? resolve?
- Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals? is scheduled to resolve on July 2, 2030.
- How is Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Each winner resolves to 25% assuming there are 4 winners.