Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastJohn Healey 92%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
32
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMay 15, 26, 1:03 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Rules
Combined conditional market on Burnham becoming PM and who he picks as Chancellor of the Exchequer if he does.
- Please only add Labour MPs as options.
- (Use the "Other" option if you think a non-Labour MP might get the job.) I don't think there are any circumstances under which this market can resolve NA.
- If you have an edge case that I haven't covered in the small print, please let me know.
- Resolves to "Current Role Holder" on this page:
- https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/chancellor-of-the-exchequer
Open markets
AI
POLYMARKETNext Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- October 31+2.3pt99%
- September 30+3.5pt95%
- September 15+0.5pt89%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $229.5K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.2pt68%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.6%
- Grok+0.4pt9.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9.6M
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+21.5pt77%
- Moonshot-15.2pt13%
- Z.ai-7.0pt6%
+8 more outcomes
GEMINIBTC price on September 1
- $77,000 or above87.5%
- $77,250 or above74%
- $77,500 or above55%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $36.8K
- 24h Vol
- $36.8K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,95%
- October 31,-0.5pt90%
- October 15,-2.0pt68%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETNext Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by which date?
- October 31+3.9pt99%
- September 30+11.7pt96%
- September 15+8.9pt86%
+7 more outcomes
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- GPT-6 released by which date?
- When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- Next Mythos-Class Model released on?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
- Next Gemini Flash Model (3.8+): Text Arena Debut?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will be Andy Burnham's Chancellor at the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices John Healey at 92% as of September 1, 2026.
- When does Who will be Andy Burnham's Chancellor at the end of 2026? resolve?
- Who will be Andy Burnham's Chancellor at the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Who will be Andy Burnham's Chancellor at the end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Combined conditional market on Burnham becoming PM and who he picks as Chancellor of the Exchequer if he does.