Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 23, 2026, 4:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecast
Angela Rayner 9.5%+0.4%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 days ago
StaleJul 9, 26, 5:38 PMDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Angela Rayner10%
Volume trend
$194Jul 96d of dataJul 23
Related Markets
Next French Presidential Election
$99.5KMarine Le Pen: 31%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Clacton by-election: 2nd place
$34.6KCount Binface: 80%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETClacton by-election Winner
$12.9KNigel Farage: 96%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETWill Count BinFace win the Clacton-by-election?
$3.4KYes: 6.5%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Germany's Federal Constitutional Court rule that the 2025 election votes must be recounted (BSW complaint)?
$596.7Yes, full recount: 6.6%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Which UK Constituencies will see By-Elections in the 2024 (59th) Parliament?
$529.1Richmond and Northallerton [Rishi Sunak]: 30.5%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Related News
Polymarket odds swing: Eizenkot hits 51% as Israel campaign kicks offBlockchain.News
Polymarket: Vance leads 2028 at 19.85% as pricing trend softensBlockchain.News
Polymarket: Le Pen jumps to 33% in France 2027 race, volume tops $114MBlockchain.News%20Abstract%20Cryptocurrency.%20With%20a%20dark%20background%20and%20a%20world%20map-min.jpg)
Polymarket odds: Lula leads Brazil 2026 race at 61.5% after 12pp jumpBlockchain.News
Polymarket odds: Eizenkot tops Israel PM market at 42.7% on $26.9MBlockchain.NewsPolymarket odds show Vance at 19.85% as 2028 field stays fragmentedBlockchain.NewsRules
Resolves N/A if Andy Burnham doesn't win the 2026 Labour Party leadership election