Current community forecast
2026-07-31 / 31st July 2026 100%Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
13
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 25, 26, 4:07 PM UTCDec 30, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
100%
Rules
Each answer resolves YES if Keir Starmer’s successor is Prime Minister at 00:01 on the date listed in the answer AND has been so continuously since their appointment.
- If they lose their job for any reason (including death/firing/resignation/losing an election) then all remaining answers will resolve NO.
- Add more dates if you want more granularity.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for On what dates will Andy Burnham be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom??
- Manifold Markets prices 2026-07-31 / 31st July 2026 at 100% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does On what dates will Andy Burnham be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom? resolve?
- On what dates will Andy Burnham be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom? is scheduled to resolve on December 30, 2030.
- How is On what dates will Andy Burnham be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Each answer resolves YES if Keir Starmer’s successor is Prime Minister at 00:01 on the date listed in the answer AND has been so continuously since their appointment.