KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Awaiting verified resolution
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Current implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2028 43%Leader of 6 outcomes
Before Jan 1, 2028 43%Market quality
35 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
$26.7K
High open interestMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jul 20, 26, 11:30 PM UTCSep 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Before Jan 1, 202843%
Before Oct 1, 202730%
Before Jul 1, 202711%
Before Apr 1, 20277%
Before Jan 1, 20276%
Before Sep 1, 2026Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Sébastien Lecornu announces departure as Prime Minister of France?
KalshiOn what dates will Andy Burnham still be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?
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KalshiAndy Burnham out as UK PM by which date?
PolymarketWho will be Andy Burnham's Chancellor at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:Andy BurnhamThe Wall Street JournalBloomberg NewsThe Washington Postthe Associated PressFox NewsReutersPrime Minister's Office, 10 Downing StreetCNNthe New York TimesPolitico
- This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If Andy Burnham leaves as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Oct 1, 2027
- If Andy Burnham leaves as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Oct 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If Andy Burnham leaves as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Apr 1, 2027
- If Andy Burnham leaves as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If Andy Burnham leaves as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Sep 1, 2026
- If Andy Burnham leaves as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.