By the end of 2050, what will my best guess be for the number of people that have died from climate change since 2000?
72.3 pts (24h)GeopoliticsOne-OffWeather
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Other 27.7%-72.3ptLeader of 10 outcomes
Other 27.7%-72.3ptForecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-72.3 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleMar 3, 23, 12:53 AM UTCJan 2, 51, 12:53 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
I will only resolve YES answers created by order of magnitude (edit: OR <10K, which includes negative numbers)
- EG: 10K-100K, 100K-1M, 1M-10M, 10M-100M, etc. Please do not add answers that deviate from this format.
- I will not count effects that route through social effects of climate change.
- EG I will not count "climate-change related mass immigration increases social instability which is partially responsible for a war in which people die".
- I will count effects like "climate change caused high temperatures in a region which caused people to be more likely to die from sickness."
