What caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop on November 13, 2026?
41.7 pts (24h)US PoliticsOne-Off1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastSoftware bug, failed update, configuration or operator error (no attacker, no AI) 76.7%+41.7ptLeader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
152
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+41.7 pts
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Nov 13, 26, 9:57 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop?
KalshiWill today’s FAA ground stop be confirmed as an AI hack by November 16?
Manifold MarketsWill we learn that the Outlook outage and/or the FAA ground stop are due to AI assisted hacking?
Manifold MarketsWill today's FAA ground stop to be confirmed due to a cyberattack by the end of the year?
Manifold MarketsAlaska Senate winner?
KalshiFed Decision in December?
PolymarketRules
On Friday, November 13, 2026, the FAA ordered a ground stop for all US airports, citing "extraordinary circumstances".
- Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy attributed it to "a communication issue impacting all Air Route Traffic Control Centers".
- When this market opened, officials had given no root cause, and CNN cited two law enforcement officials saying preliminary reports indicated it was not a cyberattack.
- Resolves to the one answer that best describes the root cause of the communications failure behind the ground stop, as publicly established by December 31, 2026 (Pacific time).
- What counts as established: statements or reports from the FAA, DOT, DHS or CISA, the FBI, the NTSB, the White House or the DOT inspector general, or reporting by a major outlet (Reuters, AP, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Bloomberg or similar) that investigators reached a finding.
- Speculation, early anonymous impressions and claims of responsibility do not count on their own.