Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?
6.0 pts (24h)YearlyPoliticsUS Politics5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNo 60%+0.1pt
Market quality
60 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$99.4
Liquidity
$3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
39.0% / 41.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Tight spread7d Change
-0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Mar 31, 26, 8:18 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes40%
Volume trend
$99Jul 718d of dataJul 27
Related Markets
Which bills will become law in 2026?
$1.9KJewish American security: 22%
KALSHI
KALSHI
How many government shutdowns in 2026?
$1.5K3: 23%KALSHI
KALSHI
Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?
$1.3KSpirit Airlines: 5%KALSHI
KALSHI
Obama federally charged before 2027?
$390.5Yes: 5%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
SBF released from custody in 2026?
$358.8Yes: 5%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?
$344.2Yes: 5%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActive in these topics
Related News
Polymarket: Vance leads 2028 at 19.85% as pricing trend softensBlockchain.News
White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk
Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News
White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph
Polymarket odds show Vance at 19.85% as Epstein files critique hits tapeBlockchain.News
Dick Durbin accuses Todd Blanche of shielding Trump’s crypto empireCrypto NewsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
- The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.