Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Aug 30, 2026, 7:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Trends
Awaiting result
Awaiting result
Rules
This market resolves based on the "Conservative Countdown to AGI" maintained by Dr. Alan D. Thompson
- Current Status: 97% (Updated Feb 2026).
- YES: The "Current Progress" meter on the official countdown page reaches 100% at any point on or before July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM PT.
- NO: The countdown remains at or below 99% by the start of August 2026.
- Source: The primary source is the official website.
- If Dr. Thompson moves the needle to 100% or officially declares "AGI Achieved" per his criteria (Median Human performance + Physical Embodiment), the market resolves YES.
