Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current community forecastNo 97.3%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 days ago
StaleFeb 16, 26, 8:10 AMAug 1, 26, 7:04 AM
Trends
97.3%
2.7%
Rules
This market resolves based on the "Conservative Countdown to AGI" maintained by Dr. Alan D. Thompson
- Current Status: 97% (Updated Feb 2026).
- YES: The "Current Progress" meter on the official countdown page reaches 100% at any point on or before July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM PT.
- NO: The countdown remains at or below 99% by the start of August 2026.
- Source: The primary source is the official website.
- If Dr. Thompson moves the needle to 100% or officially declares "AGI Achieved" per his criteria (Median Human performance + Physical Embodiment), the market resolves YES.
