Prediction Source Comparison
Compare matched prediction questions across trading markets and forecasting sources. See where probabilities align, where they diverge, and how methodology differs.
#1 searched person on Google in 2026
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
Recorded outcome gap: Bad Bunny 4pt
| Outcome |  Kalshi#1 searched person on Google in 2026 Reported open Data as of Listed end |  Polymarket+1#1 Searched Person on Google 2026? Reported open Data as of Listed end |  Manifold Markets#1 searched person on Google in 2026 Reported open Data as of Listed end |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | — | — | 41% |
| Lindsay Clancy | — | 24% | — |
| Erling Haaland | 16% | 17% | 18% |
| Bad Bunny | 14% | 10% | 13% |
| Donald Trump | 6% | 5% | 6% |
| Alysa Liu | — | 5% | — |
| Venue quality | 74$1.5K | 81$601.6 |
Also on Polymarket: #2 Searched Person on Google 2026?
Who will hold more governorships after the midterms?
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
CoinRithm referenceDemocratic Party68%0 pt venue spreadRecorded outcome gap: Republican Party 4ptPair history: 3 recorded days ≥5pt
| Outcome | CoinRithm reference | Kalshi Who will hold more governorships after the midterms? Reported open Data as of Listed end | Polymarket Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms? Reported open Data as of Listed end | Manifold Markets Who will hold more governorships after the midterms? Reported open Data as of Listed end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 68% | 68% | 68% | 71% |
| Republican Party | — | 27% | 23% | 21% |
| Tie | — | 11% | 12% | 9% |
| Venue quality | 2 venues | 72$1.1K | 63$49.9 |
Tottenham vs Coventry
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
CoinRithm referenceTottenham66%1 pt venue spreadRecorded outcome gap: Coventry 2pt
| Outcome | CoinRithm reference | Kalshi Tottenham vs Coventry Reported open Data as of Listed end | Polymarket Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Coventry City FC Reported open Data as of Listed end |  GeminiCoventry vs Tottenham Reported open Data as of Listed end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | 66% | 66% | 66% | — |
| Tottenham | — | 66% | — | 66% |
| Tie | — | 21% | 21% | — |
| Tie | — | 21% | — | 20% |
| Coventry | — | 16% | 14% | 15% |
| Venue quality | 2 venues | 74$5.8K | 77$309.8 | 49$0 |
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
Recorded outcome gap: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 1pt
| Outcome | Polymarket Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 Reported open Data as of Listed end | Manifold Markets+4 Who will win the Ballon d'Or 2026? 🏆⚽ Reported open Data as of Listed end | Kalshi Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026? Reported open Data as of Listed end |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 64% | 64% | 63% |
| Lamine Yamal | 28% | 28% | 30% |
| Kylian Mbappé | 4% | 4% | — |
| Lionel Messi | 3% | 3% | 4% |
| Kylian Mbappé | 4% | — | 4% |
| Bruno Fernandes | 0% | — | 1% |
| Venue quality | 89$627.2K | 74$205.5K |
NC-11 House winner?
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
CoinRithm referenceJamie Ager (D)78%1 pt venue spreadRecorded outcome gap: Jamie Ager 1pt
| Outcome | CoinRithm reference | Kalshi NC-11 House winner? Reported open Data as of Listed end | Polymarket NC-11 House Election Winner Reported open Data as of Listed end | Manifold Markets NC-11 House winner? Reported open Data as of Listed end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Ager | — | 78% | 77% | 76% |
| Jennifer Balkcom | — | 24% | 25% | 25% |
| Venue quality | 2 venues | 78$1.1K | 69$21.9 |
Real Madrid vs Sevilla
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
CoinRithm referenceReal Madrid80%1 pt venue spreadRecorded outcome gap: Real Madrid 1pt
| Outcome | CoinRithm reference | Kalshi Real Madrid vs Sevilla Reported open Data as of Listed end | Polymarket Real Madrid CF vs. Sevilla FC Reported open Data as of Listed end | Gemini Sevilla vs Real Madrid Reported open Data as of Listed end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 80% | 80% | 79% | — |
| Real Madrid | — | 80% | — | 79% |
| Tie | — | 14% | 14% | — |
| Tie | — | 14% | — | 14% |
| Sevilla | — | 9% | 9% | — |
| Sevilla | — | 9% | — | 8% |
| Venue quality | 3 venues | 80$26.9K | 80$2.2K | 49$60.2 |
Everton vs Chelsea
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
CoinRithm referenceChelsea46%2 pt venue spreadRecorded outcome gap: Chelsea 1pt
| Outcome | CoinRithm reference | Kalshi Everton vs Chelsea Reported open Data as of Listed end | Polymarket Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC Reported open Data as of Listed end | Gemini Chelsea vs Everton Reported open Data as of Listed end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 46% | 46% | 45% | — |
| Chelsea | — | 46% | — | 45% |
| Everton | — | 30% | 30% | — |
| Everton | — | 30% | — | 30% |
| Tie | — | 27% | 27% | — |
| Tie | — | 27% | — | 26% |
| Venue quality | 3 venues | 81$28.5K | 82$3.1K | 49$0 |
St. Louis vs Minnesota
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
CoinRithm referenceMinnesota58%1 pt venue spreadRecorded outcome gap: Minnesota 1pt
Final: Spain vs Argentina
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
Includes closed markets — historical prices
| Outcome | Kalshi Final: Spain vs Argentina Closed market Data as of Listed end | Polymarket World Cup Winner Closed market Data as of Listed end | Manifold Markets+3 2026 FIFA World Cup ⚽ | 🏆 Winner Closed market Data as of Listed end |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 99% | 100% | 100% |
| Argentina | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| Congo DR | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Iraq | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Czechia | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1% | — | 0% |
| Venue quality | 49$271.7M | 49$25.7M |
Cincinnati vs Milwaukee
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
Includes closed markets — historical prices
| Outcome | Gemini Cincinnati vs Milwaukee Closed market Data as of Listed end | Kalshi+1 Cincinnati vs Milwaukee Closed market Data as of Listed end | Polymarket Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Closed market Data as of Listed end |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers — Yes | — | — | 100% |
| Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) | — | — | 100% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: Full game — Over 8.5 total runs | — | — | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) | — | — | 100% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings — Over 2.5 total runs | — | — | 100% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings — Over 3.5 total runs | — | — | 100% |
| Venue quality | 49$10.4K | 49$2.1M | 49$188.2K |
Also on Kalshi: Cincinnati vs Milwaukee
Showing 1 - 10 out of 1790
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Related reading
- How Prediction Market Probabilities Work (2026): Prices, Odds, and What They Really Mean
- Kalshi vs Polymarket (2026): Fees, Legality, Liquidity, and Who Each Is Best For
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- Best Prediction Markets in 2026: 17 Platforms Compared (Regulation, Fees, Access and Who Each Suits)
Frequently asked questions
How do prediction market odds differ between platforms?
The same event can trade at different probabilities on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, and other platforms because each market has its own traders, liquidity, and fees. CoinRithm cross-links matching markets so you can compare the odds side by side and see where platforms disagree.
Which prediction market platform has the best odds?
There is no single best platform. Odds vary by event and change over time, so CoinRithm shows the live probability for the same outcome on each platform to help you find the most favorable price for a given market.
What is prediction market divergence?
Divergence is the gap between the probabilities that different platforms assign to the same outcome. A large gap can reflect differing information, liquidity, or mispricing. CoinRithm ranks markets by divergence to surface where the sources most disagree.
How does CoinRithm compare Polymarket and Kalshi?
CoinRithm matches equivalent Polymarket and Kalshi markets and shows their live odds, volume, and the probability gap between them, alongside fees, settlement, and availability, so you can compare both the price and the platform.
Is comparing prediction markets on CoinRithm free?
Yes. The cross-platform comparison, live odds, and divergence data on CoinRithm are free to browse and research. CoinRithm is a research and paper-trading platform, not a brokerage.