Prediction Source Comparison
Compare matched prediction questions across trading markets and forecasting sources. See where probabilities align, where they diverge, and how methodology differs.
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
Recorded outcome gap: Lamine Yamal 3pt
| Outcome |  PolymarketBallon d'Or Winner 2026 Reported open Data as of Listed end |  Manifold Markets+4Who will win the Ballon d'Or 2026? 🏆⚽ Reported open Data as of Listed end |  KalshiWho will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026? Reported open Data as of Listed end |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 60% | 62% | 62% |
| Lamine Yamal | 32% | 29% | 31% |
| Lionel Messi | 2% | 4% | 4% |
| Kylian Mbappé | 3% | — | — |
| Kylian Mbappe | — | 2% | 3% |
| Michael Olise | 0% | 2% | 1% |
| Venue quality | 89$605.3K | 74$354.4K |
How many house seats will Democrats win in Iowa?
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
Recorded outcome gap: 3 15pt
| Outcome | Manifold Markets How many house seats will Democrats win in Iowa? Reported open Data as of Listed end | Polymarket How many House seats will the Democrats win in Iowa? Reported open Data as of Listed end |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | 55% | 40% |
| 2 | 25% | 31% |
| 1 | 13% | 14% |
| 0 | 4% | 9% |
| 4 | 3% | 1% |
| Venue quality | 69$236 |
How many launches will SpaceX have in October?
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
Recorded outcome gap: Above 9 14pt
| Outcome | Kalshi How many launches will SpaceX have in October? Reported open Data as of Listed end | Manifold Markets How many launches will SpaceX have in October? Reported open Data as of Listed end |
|---|---|---|
| Above 6 | 99% | — |
| Above 7 | 96% | — |
| Above 8 | 89% | 88% |
| Above 9 | 81% | 67% |
| Above 10 | 20% | 21% |
| Above 11 | 5% | 4% |
| Venue quality | 74$23.3K |
Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nominee? (2028)
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
Recorded outcome gap: Chris Deluzio 11pt
| Outcome | Kalshi Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nominee? (2028) Reported open Data as of Listed end | Manifold Markets+1 2028 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate Nominee? Reported open Data as of Listed end |
|---|---|---|
| Summer Lee | 33% | 31% |
| Chris Deluzio | 11% | 22% |
| Conor Lamb | 15% | 10% |
| Brendan Boyle | 15% | 15% |
| John Fetterman | 10% | 6% |
| Other | — | 10% |
| Venue quality | 52$418.7 |
Also on Manifold Markets: Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nominee? (2028)
#1 searched person on Google in 2026
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
Recorded outcome gap: Lionel Messi 3pt
| Outcome | Kalshi #1 searched person on Google in 2026 Reported open Data as of Listed end | Polymarket+1 #1 Searched Person on Google 2026? Reported open Data as of Listed end | Manifold Markets #1 searched person on Google in 2026 Reported open Data as of Listed end |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | — | — | 30% |
| Lindsay Clancy | — | 21% | — |
| Erling Haaland | 16% | 17% | 16% |
| Bad Bunny | 12% | 11% | 13% |
| Donald Trump | 6% | 5% | 6% |
| Savannah Guthrie | 6% | — | 6% |
| Venue quality | 74$6.6K | 86$20.4K |
Also on Polymarket: #2 Searched Person on Google 2026?
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
CoinRithm reference4%1 pt venue spreadRecorded outcome gap: No 4pt
| Outcome | CoinRithm reference | Polymarket Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? Reported open Data as of Listed end | Manifold Markets Will Stripe acquire PayPal in 2026? Reported open Data as of Listed end | Kalshi Will Stripe acquire PayPal this year? Reported open Data as of Listed end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | — | 97% | 93% | — |
| No | — | — | — | 93% |
| Yes | 4% | 4% | 7% | — |
| Yes | — | — | — | 7% |
| Venue quality | 2 venues | 49$0 | 56$2.1 |
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
CoinRithm reference6%4 pt venue spreadRecorded outcome gap: No 4pt
| Outcome | CoinRithm reference | Polymarket Ebola pandemic in 2026? Reported open Data as of Listed end | Kalshi Ebola pandemic in 2026? Reported open Data as of Listed end | Manifold Markets Ebola pandemic in 2026? Reported open Data as of Listed end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | — | 98% | 94% | 97% |
| Yes | 6% | 2% | 6% | 3% |
| Venue quality | 2 venues | 69$597.5 | 60$36.5 |
The Social Reckoning · Rotten Tomatoes score
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
Recorded outcome gap: Above 55 4pt
| Outcome | Kalshi The Social Reckoning · Rotten Tomatoes score Reported open Data as of Listed end | Manifold Markets The Social Reckoning · Rotten Tomatoes score Reported open Data as of Listed end | Polymarket "The Social Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes Score? Reported open Data as of Listed end |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40+ | — | — | 100% |
| Above 50 | 99% | 99% | — |
| Above 45 | 99% | 99% | — |
| Above 52 | 98% | — | — |
| 50+ | — | — | 98% |
| 54+ | — | — | 98% |
| Venue quality | 74$167.4K | 61$3.5K |
NC-11 House winner?
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
CoinRithm referenceJamie Ager (D)75%1 pt venue spreadRecorded outcome gap: Jamie Ager 3pt
| Outcome | CoinRithm reference | Kalshi NC-11 House winner? Reported open Data as of Listed end | Manifold Markets NC-11 House winner? Reported open Data as of Listed end | Polymarket NC-11 House Election Winner Reported open Data as of Listed end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Ager | — | 75% | 72% | 74% |
| Jennifer Balkcom | — | 26% | 28% | 24% |
| Venue quality | 2 venues | 81$61.9K | 67$296.4 |
Pittsburgh vs Columbus
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
Recorded outcome gap: Columbus 3pt
Showing 1 - 10 out of 1858
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- Best Prediction Markets in 2026: 17 Platforms Compared (Regulation, Fees, Access and Who Each Suits)
Frequently asked questions
How do prediction market odds differ between platforms?
The same event can trade at different probabilities on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, and other platforms because each market has its own traders, liquidity, and fees. CoinRithm cross-links matching markets so you can compare the odds side by side and see where platforms disagree.
Which prediction market platform has the best odds?
There is no single best platform. Odds vary by event and change over time, so CoinRithm shows the live probability for the same outcome on each platform to help you find the most favorable price for a given market.
What is prediction market divergence?
Divergence is the gap between the probabilities that different platforms assign to the same outcome. A large gap can reflect differing information, liquidity, or mispricing. CoinRithm ranks markets by divergence to surface where the sources most disagree.
How does CoinRithm compare Polymarket and Kalshi?
CoinRithm matches equivalent Polymarket and Kalshi markets and shows their live odds, volume, and the probability gap between them, alongside fees, settlement, and availability, so you can compare both the price and the platform.
Is comparing prediction markets on CoinRithm free?
Yes. The cross-platform comparison, live odds, and divergence data on CoinRithm are free to browse and research. CoinRithm is a research and paper-trading platform, not a brokerage.