Prediction Source Comparison
Compare matched prediction questions across trading markets and forecasting sources. See where probabilities align, where they diverge, and how methodology differs.
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
CoinRithm referenceFrance39%±2 ptsLargest outcome gap: Norway 8pt
| Outcome | CoinRithm reference |  Kalshi |  Rothera |  Manifold Markets+5 |  Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 39% | 39%+0.4% | 40% | 41%+2.3% | 39%+0.8% |
| England | — | 21%+6.1% | 15% | 21%+6.2% | 22%+7.2% |
| Spain | — | 20%-1.1% | 22% | 19%-0.3% | 20%-1.0% |
| Argentina | — | 19%+0.5% | 20% | 19%+2.4% | 19%+1.2% |
| Norway | — | 0%-6.4% | 8% | 0%-8.7% | 0%-5.9% |
| Switzerland | — | 0%-1.8% | 2% | 0%-1.9% | 0%-1.6% |
| Venue quality | 5 venues | 77$25.8M15 minutes ago | 77$4.1M13 minutes ago | 14 minutes ago | 77$36M3 minutes ago |
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Largest outcome gap: Yes 3pt
| Outcome | Polymarket | Manifold Markets+1 |
|---|---|---|
| No | 83%-0.0% | 85% |
| Yes | 18%+0.0% | 15% |
| No | — | — |
| Yes | — | — |
| Venue quality | 89$387.6K19 minutes ago | 31 days ago |
Also on Manifold Markets: Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?
The Odyssey: Rotten Tomatoes score
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Above 60 | 99% | — |
| Above 45 | 99% | — |
| Above 50 | 99% | — |
| Above 55 | 99% | — |
| 60+ | — | 99% |
| 70+ | — | 99%+0.2% |
| Venue quality | 89$27K15 minutes ago | 52$460.518 minutes ago |
"Evil Dead Burn" Rotten Tomatoes score?
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Above 68 | 99%+1.0% | — |
| Above 60 | 99% | — |
| Above 65 | 99% | — |
| Above 45 | 99% | — |
| Above 50 | 99% | — |
| Above 55 | 99% | — |
| Venue quality | 100$47.6K14 minutes ago | 68$795.318 minutes ago |
"Moana" Rotten Tomatoes score?
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Above 27 | 99% | — |
| Above 25 | 99% | — |
| Above 20 | 99% | — |
| Above 22 | 99% | — |
| 30+ | — | 99%+0.1% |
| Above 30 | 96%-2.0% | — |
| Venue quality | 77$123.2K14 minutes ago | 52$866.818 minutes ago |
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs Saskatchewan Roughriders
CoinRithm referenceSaskatchewan Roughriders79%±0 pts
| Outcome | CoinRithm reference | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 79% | 79%-1.0% | 79% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | — | 22%+1.0% | 22%+0.0% |
| Venue quality | 2 venues | 52$766.314 minutes ago | 80$373.118 minutes ago |
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?
Largest outcome gap: No 3pt
| Outcome | Manifold Markets | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| No | 97% | 100% |
| Yes | 3% | 0% |
| Venue quality | 18 days ago | 60$120.511 days ago |
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in June?
Largest outcome gap: No Change 20pt
| Outcome | Polymarket | Manifold Markets |
|---|---|---|
| No Change | 100%+0.9% | 80% |
| Increase | 0%-0.7% | 17% |
| Decrease | 0%-0.1% | 2% |
| Venue quality | 49$5.6K25 days ago | 26 days ago |
Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026 [Polymarket]
Largest outcome gap: S&P 500 15pt
| Outcome | Manifold Markets | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 51% | 66%-3.0% |
| Gold | 32% | 17% |
| Bitcoin | 17% | 17%+2.5% |
| Venue quality | 19 days ago | 72$106.73 minutes ago |
Which Party will win the 2026 Senate Election in Oklahoma?
| Outcome | Manifold Markets |  PredictIt |
|---|---|---|
| Republican | — | 95% |
| Republicans | 94% | — |
| Democratic | — | 8% |
| Democrats | 6% | — |
| Venue quality | 23 days ago | 14 minutes ago |
Showing 1 - 10 out of 852
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