Prediction Source Comparison
Compare matched prediction questions across trading markets and forecasting sources. See where probabilities align, where they diverge, and how methodology differs.
2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
Recorded outcome gap: NVIDIA 9pt
| Outcome |  Polymarket2nd Largest Company end of October 2026? Reported open Data as of Listed end |  Manifold Markets2nd largest company end of October 2026? Reported open Data as of Listed end |
|---|---|---|
| Apple | 88% | 96% |
| NVIDIA | 10% | 1% |
| Alphabet | 4% | — |
| Alphabet (Google) | — | 1% |
| Microsoft | 1% | 1% |
| Amazon | 0% | 0% |
| Venue quality | 70$6.8K |
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
Recorded outcome gap: Harry Kane 2pt
| Outcome | Polymarket Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 Reported open Data as of Listed end | Manifold Markets+4 Who will win the Ballon d'Or 2026? 🏆⚽ Reported open Data as of Listed end |  KalshiWho will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026? Reported open Data as of Listed end |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 63% | 61% | 61% |
| Lamine Yamal | 31% | 32% | 32% |
| Kylian Mbappe | — | 3% | 5% |
| Lionel Messi | 3% | 3% | 4% |
| Kylian Mbappé | 4% | — | — |
| Bruno Fernandes | 0% | — | 1% |
| Venue quality | 89$812.1K | 74$253.6K |
#1 searched person on Google in 2026
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
Recorded outcome gap: Lionel Messi 2pt
| Outcome | Kalshi #1 searched person on Google in 2026 Reported open Data as of Listed end | Polymarket+1 #1 Searched Person on Google 2026? Reported open Data as of Listed end | Manifold Markets #1 searched person on Google in 2026 Reported open Data as of Listed end |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | — | — | 41% |
| Lindsay Clancy | — | 23% | — |
| Erling Haaland | 17% | 17% | 19% |
| Bad Bunny | 11% | 11% | 13% |
| Donald Trump | 6% | 5% | 6% |
| Savannah Guthrie | 6% | — | 5% |
| Venue quality | 74$5K | 80$1.3K |
Also on Polymarket: #2 Searched Person on Google 2026?
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping · Rotten Tomatoes score
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
Recorded outcome gap: Above 65 7pt
| Outcome | Kalshi The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping · Rotten Tomatoes score Reported open Data as of Listed end | Manifold Markets The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping · Rotten Tomatoes score Reported open Data as of Listed end |
|---|---|---|
| Above 45 | 97% | 93% |
| Above 50 | 93% | 90% |
| Above 55 | 90% | 87% |
| Above 60 | 84% | 79% |
| Above 65 | 79% | 72% |
| Above 70 | 64% | 61% |
| Venue quality | 74$32.7K |
Largest Company end of October 2026?
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
Recorded outcome gap: NVIDIA 6pt
| Outcome | Polymarket Largest Company end of October 2026? Reported open Data as of Listed end | Manifold Markets Largest company end of October 2026? Reported open Data as of Listed end |
|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA | 91% | 97% |
| Apple | 7% | 1% |
| Alphabet (Google) | — | 0% |
| Microsoft | 0% | 0% |
| Amazon | 0% | 0% |
| Tesla | 0% | 0% |
| Venue quality | 82$24.2K |
Who will hold more governorships after the midterms?
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
CoinRithm referenceDemocratic Party68%0 pt venue spreadRecorded outcome gap: Republican Party 5pt
| Outcome | CoinRithm reference | Kalshi Who will hold more governorships after the midterms? Reported open Data as of Listed end | Manifold Markets Who will hold more governorships after the midterms? Reported open Data as of Listed end | Polymarket Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms? Reported open Data as of Listed end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 68% | 68% | 71% | 68% |
| Republican Party | — | 25% | 20% | 23% |
| Tie | — | 11% | 9% | 10% |
| Venue quality | 2 venues | 72$565.5 | 60$2.9 |
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
CoinRithm reference3%1 pt venue spreadRecorded outcome gap: Yes 4pt
| Outcome | CoinRithm reference | Polymarket Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? Reported open Data as of Listed end | Manifold Markets Will Stripe acquire PayPal in 2026? Reported open Data as of Listed end | Kalshi Will Stripe acquire PayPal this year? Reported open Data as of Listed end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | — | 97% | 93% | — |
| No | — | — | — | 93% |
| Yes | 3% | 3% | 7% | — |
| Yes | — | — | — | 7% |
| Venue quality | 2 venues | 49$0 | 49$0 |
How many launches will SpaceX have in October?
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
Recorded outcome gap: Above 11 4pt
| Outcome | Kalshi How many launches will SpaceX have in October? Reported open Data as of Listed end | Manifold Markets How many launches will SpaceX have in October? Reported open Data as of Listed end |
|---|---|---|
| Above 8 | 96% | 99% |
| Above 6 | 99% | — |
| Above 7 | 97% | — |
| Above 9 | 94% | 92% |
| Above 10 | 69% | 69% |
| Above 11 | 11% | 7% |
| Venue quality | 61$24.9K |
How many house seats will Democrats win in Iowa?
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
Recorded outcome gap: 0 2ptPair history: 2 recorded days ≥5pt
| Outcome | Manifold Markets How many house seats will Democrats win in Iowa? Reported open Data as of Listed end | Polymarket How many House seats will the Democrats win in Iowa? Reported open Data as of Listed end |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | 49% | 48% |
| 2 | 29% | 28% |
| 1 | 11% | 13% |
| 0 | 9% | 7% |
| 4 | 2% | 1% |
| Venue quality | 72$354 |
New York vs Toronto
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
CoinRithm referenceToronto77%2 pt venue spreadRecorded outcome gap: Toronto 2pt
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Frequently asked questions
How do prediction market odds differ between platforms?
The same event can trade at different probabilities on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, and other platforms because each market has its own traders, liquidity, and fees. CoinRithm cross-links matching markets so you can compare the odds side by side and see where platforms disagree.
Which prediction market platform has the best odds?
There is no single best platform. Odds vary by event and change over time, so CoinRithm shows the live probability for the same outcome on each platform to help you find the most favorable price for a given market.
What is prediction market divergence?
Divergence is the gap between the probabilities that different platforms assign to the same outcome. A large gap can reflect differing information, liquidity, or mispricing. CoinRithm ranks markets by divergence to surface where the sources most disagree.
How does CoinRithm compare Polymarket and Kalshi?
CoinRithm matches equivalent Polymarket and Kalshi markets and shows their live odds, volume, and the probability gap between them, alongside fees, settlement, and availability, so you can compare both the price and the platform.
Is comparing prediction markets on CoinRithm free?
Yes. The cross-platform comparison, live odds, and divergence data on CoinRithm are free to browse and research. CoinRithm is a research and paper-trading platform, not a brokerage.