Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOther 29.9%+1.3ptLeader of 11 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+1.8 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleSep 28, 26, 11:05 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
#2 Most Searched Person on Google in 2026?
Kalshi#1 Searched Person on Google 2026?
Polymarket#1 Searched Person on Google in the US 2026?
PolymarketWill SpaceXAI rename itself to SpaceXSI (or another "SI" name) by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI change its name by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen before election day for the 2026 midterms? [Add Answers] (Please ensure you read the rules)
Manifold MarketsRules
Mirrors this Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxranklistgooglesearch/1-most-searched-on-google/kxranklistgooglesearch-26dec
- Resolves according to Kalshi's final result, using Kalshi's rules for this market.
- Resolves Yes to whoever is is #1 search on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People in 2026.Outcome verified from Google Trends.
- This market resolves based on the individual ranked #1 in the “People” section of Google’s official Year in Search 2026 – Global list.
- Google’s report includes multiple sections such as Searches, News, Passings, and People — only the People section applies to this market.
- If Liam Payne is #1 in “Searches” but the named outcome is #1 in “People,” the market resolves Yes to the named outcome.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — #2 Searched Person on Google 2026? · Erling Haaland 20%
- Also available on Kalshi — #1 searched person on Google in 2026 · Erling Haaland 16%