Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastEric Lucan 61%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJun 15, 26, 4:58 PMNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Rules
the named outcome and the named outcome were the two leading candidates in the California Primaries that took place in early June.
- At this stage, it is a near certainty that both candidates will move on to the run-off election on November 3, 2026.
- To cover the unlikely possibility that one of the two candidates is not certified to move on to the run-off election, this market offers a third choice "Other."
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the candidate who is officially certified as the winner of the November 3, 2026 general election for the California State Assembly District 12 seat.
- The primary source of truth for resolution will be the certified election results published by the California Secretary of State.
Open markets
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- 24h Vol
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.0pt17.2%
- Jon Ossoff+1.0pt17.2%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.2pt61%
- October 31+1.5pt39%
- September 30-1.0pt20%
+17 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will win the California State Assembly 12th District Seat??
- Manifold Markets prices Eric Lucan at 61% as of September 1, 2026.
- When does Who will win the California State Assembly 12th District Seat? resolve?
- Who will win the California State Assembly 12th District Seat? is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is Who will win the California State Assembly 12th District Seat? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: the named outcome and the named outcome were the two leading candidates in the California Primaries that took place in early June.