Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastEric Lucan 61%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJun 15, 26, 4:58 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will win the 2026 election for California's 51st State Assembly district
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KalshiRules
the named outcome and the named outcome were the two leading candidates in the California Primaries that took place in early June.
- At this stage, it is a near certainty that both candidates will move on to the run-off election on November 3, 2026.
- To cover the unlikely possibility that one of the two candidates is not certified to move on to the run-off election, this market offers a third choice "Other."
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the candidate who is officially certified as the winner of the November 3, 2026 general election for the California State Assembly District 12 seat.
- The primary source of truth for resolution will be the certified election results published by the California Secretary of State.
