Source Comparison
Compare prediction market and forecasting sources side by side: coverage, volume, liquidity, participation, and methodology.
Data health
| Venue | Freshness | Open markets | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
 Kalshi | Updated 11m ago | 12,157 | Full catalog sweep |
 Polymarket | Updated 12m ago | 19,131 | Full catalog sweep |
 Limitless | Updated 11m ago | 712 | Full catalog sweep |
 Robinhood (Rothera) | Updated 10m ago | 238 | Full catalog sweep |
 Myriad | Updated 32m ago | 74 | Full catalog sweep |
 Gemini | Updated 31m ago | 808 | Full catalog sweep |
 ForecastEx | Updated 32m ago | 4,918 | Full catalog sweep |
 Smarkets | Updated 10m ago | 100 | Full catalog sweep |
 Futuur | Updated 32m ago | 695 | Full catalog sweep |
 Manifold Markets | Updated 10m ago | 9,413 | Full catalog sweep |
 Metaculus | Updated 11m ago | 2 | Full catalog sweep |
 PredictIt | Updated 11m ago | 190 | Full catalog sweep |
CFTC-regulated prediction exchange. KYC required. US only. Settles in USD via central limit order book.
Updated 11m agoFull catalog sweepCLOBSettles in USDKYC requiredCheck availability2% taker fee
Total Events
298,754
12,157 open events
Total Volume
$56.6B
$63.3M 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$828.4M
11.6 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Verified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 271,295
- Verified settlement times: 270,785
- Calibration-ready histories: 78,962
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 298,514 (12,002 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 271,295 (95%)
- Price history since 2026-05-22
- Freshness p95: 16m
- Last full sync: 34m
Top Categories
One-OffSportsPoliticsUS PoliticsElections
Polymarket
polymarket.comDecentralized prediction market on Polygon. No KYC required. Settles in USDC via UMA oracle.
Updated 12m agoFull catalog sweepAMMSettles in USDCNo KYCCheck availability2% taker fee
Total Events
480,948
19,131 open events
Total Volume
$37.4B
$34.2M 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$693.4M
4.7 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Verified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 356,432
- Verified settlement times: 353,712
- Calibration-ready histories: 43,324
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 480,865 (19,709 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 356,432 (77%)
- Price history since 2026-03-28
- Freshness p95: 16m
- Last full sync: 40m
Known gaps
- Pre-CLOB markets are not served by the APIs we read, so history starts at the CLOB cutover, not launch.
Top Categories
One-OffSportsSoccerCrypto5 Minutes
Limitless
limitless.exchangeOn-chain prediction market built on Base. Markets are fully collateralized in USDC and settled on-chain. No KYC required — connect a wallet to trade.
Updated 11m agoFull catalog sweepAMM / CLOBSettles in USDCNo KYCCheck availability
Total Events
143,076
712 open events
Total Volume
$2.6B
$582.2K 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$2.8M
2 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Verified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 134,936
- Verified settlement times: 21,277
- Calibration-ready histories: 403
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 143,069 (717 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 134,936 (95%)
- Price history since 2026-04-11
- Freshness p95: 16m
- Last full sync: 33m
Known gaps
- Oracle settlement time is published for daily/hourly series only; 15-minute and sports settle without one.
Top Categories
One-OffSportsSoccerTennisEsports
Robinhood (Rothera)
Total Events
750
238 open events
Total Volume
$991.7M
$3.2M 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$30.7M
3.4 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Limited verified data- Verified outcomes: 426
- Verified settlement times: 0
- Calibration-ready histories: 0
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 750 (238 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 426 (83%)
- Price history since 2026-07-07
- Freshness p95: 16m
- Last full sync: 32m
Top Categories
One-OffElectionsSportsPoliticsUS Politics
Myriad
Total Events
907
74 open events
Total Volume
$147.7M
$42.3K 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$46.4K
2.9 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Limited verified data- Verified outcomes: 806
- Verified settlement times: 0
- Calibration-ready histories: 0
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 907 (77 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 806 (97%)
- Price history since 2026-07-08
- Freshness p95: 39s
- Last full sync: 32m
Top Categories
One-OffCryptoSportsSoccerExchange
Gemini Prediction Markets is a CFTC-regulated US event-contract exchange. CoinRithm uses Gemini's public market API for active and settled events, live bid/ask prices, rolling 24-hour volume, and provider resolution timestamps. Access and trading availability are jurisdiction-dependent.
Updated 31m agoFull catalog sweepOrder bookSettles in USDKYC required
Total Events
45,606
808 open events
Total Volume
$34.9M
$221.9K 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$0
2 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Verified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 39,382
- Verified settlement times: 39,330
- Calibration-ready histories: 1,339
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 45,606 (836 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 39,382 (88%)
- Price history since 2026-07-27
- Freshness p95: 16m
- Last full sync: 32m
Top Categories
One-OffAISportsAmerican FootballPolitics
ForecastEx
Total Events
25,521
4,918 open events
Total Volume
$27.8M
$231.4K 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$9.1M
2 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Limited verified data- Verified outcomes: 14,176
- Verified settlement times: 0
- Calibration-ready histories: 0
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 25,521 (4,918 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 14,176 (69%)
- Verified resolution archive: 191,975 (191,041 provider-grade; 2024-08-01 → 2026-08-10; 740/740 files)
- Price history since 2026-07-11
- Freshness p95: 16m
- Last full sync: 32m
Top Categories
One-OffPoliticsElectionsUS PoliticsDaily
Smarkets
smarkets.comSmarkets
Updated 10m agoFull catalog sweepOrder bookKYC requiredCheck availability
Total Events
160
100 open events
Total Volume
$1.6M
$799 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$11.4M
3.5 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Limited verified data- Verified outcomes: 16
- Verified settlement times: 16
- Calibration-ready histories: 0
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 160 (100 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 16 (27%)
- Price history since 2026-04-12
- Freshness p95: 16m
- Last full sync: 32m
Top Categories
One-OffPoliticsElectionsUS PoliticsEurope
Futuur
Total Events
207,730
695 open events
Total Volume
$540.6K
$3K 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$1.7M
2.4 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Verified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 205,227
- Verified settlement times: 204,997
- Calibration-ready histories: 7
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 207,730 (716 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 205,227 (99%)
- Price history since 2026-07-08
- Freshness p95: 75s
- Last full sync: 32m
Open universe verified: 727 of 727 published by venue (venue-published count)
Known gaps
- Most resolved markets were backfilled after settling, so they carry an outcome and a settlement time but no probability observed while they were open — they cannot be scored for calibration.
Top Categories
One-OffSportsPoliticsSoccerLatin America
Manifold Markets
manifold.marketsPlay-money prediction market platform where anyone can create markets on any topic. Uses Mana (M$), a free virtual currency. High market breadth makes it a strong signal for crowd forecasting on niche topics.
Updated 10m agoFull catalog sweepSettles in Mana (M$)No KYC
Total Events
27,560
9,413 open events
Total Volume
$0
$0 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$0
4.7 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Verified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 8,651
- Verified settlement times: 8,773
- Calibration-ready histories: 1,547
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Bounded sweep- Catalog: 27,560 (9,428 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 8,651 (48%)
- Price history since 2026-04-11
- Freshness p95: 14.7h
- Last full sync: not yet
Known gaps
- Voided (N/A) markets look unresolved in the feed, so some closed markets hold no winner.
- Search stops paginating past an offset ceiling: the open set is a bounded slice, not the full catalog.
Top Categories
One-OffPoliticsAITechUS Politics
Metaculus
www.metaculus.comCommunity forecasting platform focused on probabilistic estimates and forecaster track records.
Updated 11m agoFull catalog sweep
Total Events
4
2 open events
Total Volume
$0
$0 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$0
2.5 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Unverified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 0
- Verified settlement times: 0
- Calibration-ready histories: 0
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 4 (2 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 0 (0%)
- Price history since 2026-03-31
- Freshness p95: 14s
- Last full sync: 33m
Known gaps
- Metaculus's authenticated API withholds community probabilities on most questions and resolution outcomes for questions this account did not forecast; CoinRithm only publishes the permitted sparse slice and cannot verify those winners.
Top Categories
One-OffPoliticsElectionsEuropeGeopolitics
PredictIt
www.predictit.orgUS-focused prediction market centered on politics and public events. Tradeable contracts are available, but public market-depth data is limited compared with larger exchange-style venues.
Updated 11m agoFull catalog sweepOrder bookSettles in USDKYC requiredCheck availability
Total Events
503
190 open events
Total Volume
$0
$0 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$0
4.5 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Unverified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 0
- Verified settlement times: 0
- Calibration-ready histories: 0
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 503 (190 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 0 (0%)
- Price history since 2026-03-31
- Freshness p95: 42s
- Last full sync: 33m
Open universe verified: 190 of 190 published by venue (venue returns its whole list in one response)
Known gaps
- Feed reports closure but never names the winning contract: settlement time without a provider winner.
Top Categories
One-OffUS PoliticsPoliticsElectionsGeopolitics
| Kalshi | Polymarket | Limitless | Robinhood (Rothera) | Myriad | Gemini | ForecastEx | Smarkets | Futuur | Manifold Markets | Metaculus | PredictIt | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Events | 298,754 | 480,948 | 143,076 | 750 | 907 | 45,606 | 25,521 | 160 | 207,730 | 27,560 | 4 | 503 |
| Open Events | 12,157 | 19,131 | 712 | 238 | 74 | 808 | 4,918 | 100 | 695 | 9,413 | 2 | 190 |
| Closed Events | 286,597 | 461,817 | 142,364 | 512 | 833 | 44,798 | 20,603 | 60 | 207,035 | 18,147 | 2 | 313 |
| Total Volume | $56,596,808,274 | $37,427,554,136 | $2,588,466,004 | $991,735,615 | $147,657,182 | $34,865,979 | $27,763,367 | $1,626,393 | $540,609 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 24h Volume | $63,283,007 | $34,222,553 | $582,203 | $3,238,078 | $42,268 | $221,922 | $231,410 | $799 | $3,043 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Total Liquidity | $828,425,266 | $693,425,690 | $2,821,425 | $30,695,270 | $46,440 | $0 | $9,101,968 | $11,379,461 | $1,744,998 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Avg Outcomes | 11.6 | 4.7 | 2 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2 | 2 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 4.5 |
| Liquidity model | CLOB | AMM | AMM / CLOB | — | — | Order book | — | Order book | — | — | — | Order book |
| Settlement currency | USD | USDC | USDC | — | — | USD | — | — | — | Mana (M$) | — | USD |
| KYC / Identity | Required | Not required | Not required | — | — | Required | — | Required | — | Not required | — | Required |
| Taker fee | 2% | 2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maker fee | No fee | No fee | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Geographic access | Check availability | Check availability | Check availability | Forecast/play-money source | Forecast/play-money source | Forecast/play-money source | Forecast/play-money source | Check availability | Forecast/play-money source | Forecast/play-money source | Forecast/play-money source | Check availability |
Platform availability by country
Not all platforms are available in every country. See which platforms you can access based on where you are.
Canonical events
One identity per real-world question — every venue listing it, with match confidence and a public correction history.
Forecast accuracy
Full calibration report →How closely each venue's prices matched real outcomes.
Manifold MarketsFairly calibrated
- Calibration error (lower is better)
- 3.2%
- Avg. winner confidence
- 71%
- Predicted / Actual
- 287 markets
PolymarketFairly calibrated
- Calibration error (lower is better)
- 4.0%
- Avg. winner confidence
- 65%
- Predicted / Actual
- 355 markets
KalshiFairly calibrated
- Calibration error (lower is better)
- 5.3%
- Avg. winner confidence
- 51%
- Predicted / Actual
- 1,098 markets
Predicted → Actual · dashed line = perfect calibration · Based on each outcome's probability about 24 hours before it resolved, across resolved markets with at least 24 hours of price history. Short-duration markets are excluded.
Calibration pending: ForecastEx, Futuur, Gemini, Limitless, Metaculus, Myriad, PredictIt, Robinhood (Rothera), Smarkets — not enough resolved history with 24h+ prices yet