Source Comparison
Compare prediction market and forecasting sources side by side: coverage, volume, liquidity, participation, and methodology.
Data health
| Venue | Freshness | Open markets | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
 Kalshi | Updated 18m ago | 13,241 | Full catalog sweep |
 Polymarket | Updated 16m ago | 18,175 | Full catalog sweep |
 Limitless | Updated 21m ago | 550 | Full catalog sweep |
 Robinhood (Rothera) | Updated 21m ago | 296 | Full catalog sweep |
 Myriad | Updated 21m ago | 83 | Full catalog sweep |
 Gemini | Updated 20m ago | 695 | Full catalog sweep |
 ForecastEx | Updated 19m ago | 4,126 | Full catalog sweep |
 Smarkets | Updated 20m ago | 100 | Full catalog sweep |
 Futuur | Updated 21m ago | 691 | Full catalog sweep |
 Manifold Markets | Updated 18m ago | 15,766 | Full catalog sweep |
 Metaculus | Updated 20m ago | 2 | Full catalog sweep |
 PredictIt | Updated 19m ago | 186 | Full catalog sweep |
CFTC-regulated prediction exchange. KYC required. US only. Settles in USD via central limit order book.
Updated 18m agoFull catalog sweepCLOBSettles in USDKYC requiredCheck availability2% taker fee
Total Events
386,565
13,241 open events
Total Volume
$68.7B
$53.2M 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$1B
11.5 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Verified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 350,990
- Verified settlement times: 350,898
- Calibration-ready histories: 111,356
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 386,565 (13,256 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 350,990 (94%)
- Price history since 2026-05-22
- Freshness p95: 5m
- Last full sync: 19m
Top Categories
One-OffSportsPoliticsElectionsSoccer
Polymarket
polymarket.comDecentralized prediction market on Polygon. No KYC required. Settles in USDC via UMA oracle.
Updated 16m agoFull catalog sweepAMMSettles in USDCNo KYCCheck availability2% taker fee
Total Events
581,984
18,175 open events
Total Volume
$40.1B
$32.8M 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$737.7M
5 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Verified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 456,782
- Verified settlement times: 454,439
- Calibration-ready histories: 47,628
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 581,984 (18,461 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 456,782 (81%)
- Price history since 2026-03-28
- Freshness p95: 5m
- Last full sync: 19m
Known gaps
- Pre-CLOB markets are not served by the APIs we read, so history starts at the CLOB cutover, not launch.
Top Categories
One-OffSportsSoccerCryptoPolitics
Limitless
limitless.exchangeOn-chain prediction market built on Base. Markets are fully collateralized in USDC and settled on-chain. No KYC required - connect a wallet to trade.
Updated 21m agoFull catalog sweepAMM / CLOBSettles in USDCNo KYCCheck availability
Total Events
156,542
550 open events
Total Volume
$2.6B
$18.5K 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$2M
2 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Verified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 148,031
- Verified settlement times: 33,935
- Calibration-ready histories: 839
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 156,542 (552 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 148,031 (95%)
- Price history since 2026-04-11
- Freshness p95: 5m
- Last full sync: 21m
Known gaps
- Oracle settlement time is published for daily/hourly series only; 15-minute and sports settle without one.
Top Categories
One-OffSoccerSportsCryptoUS Politics
Robinhood (Rothera)
Total Events
1,101
296 open events
Total Volume
$1.4B
$7.7M 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$67.5M
4.4 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Limited verified data- Verified outcomes: 711
- Verified settlement times: 0
- Calibration-ready histories: 0
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 1,101 (296 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 711 (88%)
- Price history since 2026-07-07
- Freshness p95: 5m
- Last full sync: 21m
Top Categories
One-OffSportsElectionsAmerican FootballPolitics
Myriad
Total Events
1,083
83 open events
Total Volume
$148.1M
$58.8K 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$46.4K
2.9 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Limited verified data- Verified outcomes: 983
- Verified settlement times: 0
- Calibration-ready histories: 0
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 1,083 (83 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 983 (98%)
- Price history since 2026-07-08
- Freshness p95: 18s
- Last full sync: 21m
Top Categories
One-OffSoccerSportsCryptoExchange
Gemini Prediction Markets is a CFTC-regulated US event-contract exchange. CoinRithm uses Gemini's public market API for active and settled events, live bid/ask prices, rolling 24-hour volume, and provider resolution timestamps. Access and trading availability are jurisdiction-dependent.
Updated 20m agoFull catalog sweepOrder bookSettles in USDKYC required
Total Events
78,696
695 open events
Total Volume
$59.8M
$280.7K 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$0
2.1 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Verified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 77,386
- Verified settlement times: 77,376
- Calibration-ready histories: 1,950
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 78,696 (711 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 77,386 (99%)
- Price history since 2026-07-27
- Freshness p95: 13m
- Last full sync: 20m
Top Categories
One-OffSportsPoliticsElectionsAmerican Football
ForecastEx
Total Events
33,765
4,126 open events
Total Volume
$35.4M
$83.4K 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$9.6M
2 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Limited verified data- Verified outcomes: 26,190
- Verified settlement times: 0
- Calibration-ready histories: 0
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 33,765 (4,126 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 26,190 (88%)
- Verified resolution archive: 213,137 (212,327 provider-grade; 2024-08-01 → 2026-08-10; 740/740 files)
- Price history since 2026-07-11
- Freshness p95: 5m
- Last full sync: 21m
Top Categories
One-OffPoliticsElectionsUS PoliticsCommodities
Smarkets
smarkets.comSmarkets
Updated 20m agoFull catalog sweepOrder bookKYC requiredCheck availability
Total Events
164
100 open events
Total Volume
$1.7M
$1.4K 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$12.6M
3.5 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Limited verified data- Verified outcomes: 17
- Verified settlement times: 17
- Calibration-ready histories: 0
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 164 (100 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 17 (27%)
- Price history since 2026-04-12
- Freshness p95: 5m
- Last full sync: 20m
Top Categories
One-OffPoliticsElectionsUS PoliticsEurope
Futuur
Total Events
209,259
691 open events
Total Volume
$715.3K
$3.1K 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$1.6M
2.4 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Verified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 206,770
- Verified settlement times: 206,540
- Calibration-ready histories: 19
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 209,259 (691 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 206,770 (99%)
- Price history since 2026-07-08
- Freshness p95: 2m
- Last full sync: 21m
Open universe verified: 701 of 701 published by venue (venue-published count)
Known gaps
- Most resolved markets were backfilled after settling, so they carry an outcome and a settlement time but no probability observed while they were open — they cannot be scored for calibration.
Top Categories
One-OffSportsSoccerPoliticsLatin America
Manifold Markets
manifold.marketsPlay-money prediction market platform where anyone can create markets on any topic. Uses Mana (M$), a free virtual currency. High market breadth makes it a strong signal for crowd forecasting on niche topics.
Updated 18m agoFull catalog sweepSettles in Mana (M$)No KYC
Total Events
29,383
15,766 open events
Total Volume
$0
$0 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$0
4.7 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Verified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 9,380
- Verified settlement times: 9,504
- Calibration-ready histories: 1,584
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Bounded sweep- Catalog: 29,383 (15,772 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 9,380 (69%)
- Price history since 2026-04-11
- Freshness p95: 17.1h
- Last full sync: not yet
Known gaps
- Voided (N/A) markets look unresolved in the feed, so some closed markets hold no winner.
- Search stops paginating past an offset ceiling: the open set is a bounded slice, not the full catalog.
Top Categories
One-OffPoliticsAITechUS Politics
Metaculus
www.metaculus.comCommunity forecasting platform focused on probabilistic estimates and forecaster track records.
Updated 20m agoFull catalog sweep
Total Events
4
2 open events
Total Volume
$0
$0 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$0
2.5 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Unverified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 0
- Verified settlement times: 0
- Calibration-ready histories: 0
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 4 (2 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 0 (0%)
- Price history since 2026-03-31
- Freshness p95: 6s
- Last full sync: 20m
Known gaps
- Metaculus's authenticated API withholds community probabilities on most questions and resolution outcomes for questions this account did not forecast; CoinRithm only publishes the permitted sparse slice and cannot verify those winners.
Top Categories
One-OffPoliticsElectionsEuropeGeopolitics
PredictIt
www.predictit.orgUS-focused prediction market centered on politics and public events. Tradeable contracts are available, but public market-depth data is limited compared with larger exchange-style venues.
Updated 19m agoFull catalog sweepOrder bookSettles in USDKYC requiredCheck availability
Total Events
519
186 open events
Total Volume
$0
$0 24h volume
Total Liquidity
$0
4.6 avg outcomes
Resolution evidence
Unverified resolution data- Verified outcomes: 0
- Verified settlement times: 0
- Calibration-ready histories: 0
- Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)
Coverage ledger
Full sweep- Catalog: 519 (186 open)
- Provider-verified resolutions: 0 (0%)
- Price history since 2026-03-31
- Freshness p95: 20s
- Last full sync: 20m
Open universe verified: 186 of 186 published by venue (venue returns its whole list in one response)
Known gaps
- Feed reports closure but never names the winning contract: settlement time without a provider winner.
Top Categories
One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElectionsGeopolitics
| Kalshi | Polymarket | Limitless | Robinhood (Rothera) | Myriad | Gemini | ForecastEx | Smarkets | Futuur | Manifold Markets | Metaculus | PredictIt | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Events | 386,565 | 581,984 | 156,542 | 1,101 | 1,083 | 78,696 | 33,765 | 164 | 209,259 | 29,383 | 4 | 519 |
| Open Events | 13,241 | 18,175 | 550 | 296 | 83 | 695 | 4,126 | 100 | 691 | 15,766 | 2 | 186 |
| Closed Events | 373,324 | 563,809 | 155,992 | 805 | 1,000 | 78,001 | 29,639 | 64 | 208,568 | 13,617 | 2 | 333 |
| Total Volume | $68,669,675,649 | $40,116,231,267 | $2,609,929,416 | $1,401,839,712 | $148,062,140 | $59,757,008 | $35,441,138 | $1,662,786 | $715,253 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 24h Volume | $53,202,455 | $32,787,914 | $18,525 | $7,682,169 | $58,800 | $280,669 | $83,388 | $1,429 | $3,140 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Total Liquidity | $1,002,893,886 | $737,682,754 | $2,000,525 | $67,480,289 | $46,440 | $0 | $9,627,700 | $12,572,930 | $1,585,995 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Avg Outcomes | 11.5 | 5 | 2 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 4.6 |
| Liquidity model | CLOB | AMM | AMM / CLOB | — | — | Order book | — | Order book | — | — | — | Order book |
| Settlement currency | USD | USDC | USDC | — | — | USD | — | — | — | Mana (M$) | — | USD |
| KYC / Identity | Required | Not required | Not required | — | — | Required | — | Required | — | Not required | — | Required |
| Taker fee | 2% | 2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maker fee | No fee | No fee | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Geographic access | Check availability | Check availability | Check availability | Forecast/play-money source | Forecast/play-money source | Forecast/play-money source | Forecast/play-money source | Check availability | Forecast/play-money source | Forecast/play-money source | Forecast/play-money source | Check availability |
Platform availability by country
Not all platforms are available in every country. See which platforms you can access based on where you are.
Canonical events
One identity per real-world question - every venue listing it, with match confidence and a public correction history.
Forecast accuracy
Full calibration report →How closely each venue's prices matched real outcomes.
PolymarketWell calibrated
- Calibration error (lower is better)
- 2.3%
- Avg. winner confidence
- 53%
- Predicted / Actual
- 832 markets
Manifold MarketsFairly calibrated
- Calibration error (lower is better)
- 4.2%
- Avg. winner confidence
- 72%
- Predicted / Actual
- 280 markets
KalshiFairly calibrated
- Calibration error (lower is better)
- 5.7%
- Avg. winner confidence
- 48%
- Predicted / Actual
- 3,017 markets
LimitlessRoughly calibrated
- Calibration error (lower is better)
- 10.8%
- Avg. winner confidence
- 50%
- Predicted / Actual
- 91 markets
GeminiRoughly calibrated
- Calibration error (lower is better)
- 14.7%
- Avg. winner confidence
- 60%
- Predicted / Actual
- 37 markets
Predicted → Actual · dashed line = perfect calibration · Based on each outcome's probability about 24 hours before it resolved, across resolved markets with at least 24 hours of price history. Short-duration markets are excluded.
Calibration pending: ForecastEx, Futuur, Metaculus, Myriad, PredictIt, Robinhood (Rothera), Smarkets — not enough resolved history with 24h+ prices yet