Source Comparison

Compare prediction market and forecasting sources side by side: coverage, volume, liquidity, participation, and methodology.

Data health

Venue	Freshness	Open markets	Note
Kalshi	Data freshness unknown	14,316	Full catalog sweep
Polymarket	Data freshness unknown	19,214	Full catalog sweep
Limitless	Data freshness unknown	609	Full catalog sweep
Robinhood (Rothera)	Data freshness unknown	356	Full catalog sweep
Myriad	Data freshness unknown	70	Full catalog sweep
Gemini	Data freshness unknown	799	Full catalog sweep
ForecastEx	Data freshness unknown	3,668	Full catalog sweep
Smarkets	Data freshness unknown	113	Full catalog sweep
Futuur	Data freshness unknown	705	Full catalog sweep
Manifold Markets	Data freshness unknown	34,332	Full catalog sweep
Metaculus	Data freshness unknown	2	Full catalog sweep
PredictIt	Data freshness unknown	204	Full catalog sweep

Kalshi

kalshi.com

CFTC-regulated exchange for Yes/No event contracts, settled in US dollars on a central limit order book. Identity verification is required; open in the US and many other countries except the restricted jurisdictions in its member agreement.

Data freshness unknownFull catalog sweepCLOBSettles in USDKYC requiredCheck availability

Total Events

539,662

14,316 open events

Total Volume

$93.9B

$68.3M trailing 24 hours

Open interest

$1.3B

11.5 avg outcomes

Resolution evidence

Verified resolution data

Verified outcomes: 494,877
Verified settlement times: 494,867
Calibration-ready histories: 175,449
Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)

Coverage ledger

Full sweep

Catalog: 539,516 (14,362 open)
Provider-verified resolutions: 494,703 (94%)
Price history since 2026-05-22
Freshness p95: 41m
Last full sync: 62m

Top Categories

One-OffSportsPoliticsElectionsUS Politics

View Kalshi Markets Full profile

Polymarket

polymarket.com

International on-chain prediction market on Polygon, settling in pUSD (backed 1:1 by USDC). Not CFTC-regulated and closed to US persons; US residents use the separate CFTC-regulated Polymarket US app. Taker fees vary by market category; makers pay none.

Data freshness unknownFull catalog sweepCLOBSettles in pUSD (USDC-backed)No KYCCheck availability

Total Events

751,139

19,214 open events

Total Volume

$44.7B

$51.2M trailing 24 hours

Total Liquidity

$956.3M

5.6 avg outcomes

Resolution evidence

Verified resolution data

Verified outcomes: 599,827
Verified settlement times: 597,464
Calibration-ready histories: 61,197
Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)

Coverage ledger

Full sweep

Catalog: 750,923 (22,410 open)
Provider-verified resolutions: 599,721 (82%)
Price history since 2026-03-28
Freshness p95: 31m
Last full sync: 62m

Known gaps

Pre-CLOB markets are not served by the APIs we read, so history starts at the CLOB cutover, not launch.

Top Categories

One-OffSportsSoccerCrypto5 Minutes

View Polymarket Markets Full profile

Limitless

limitless.exchange

On-chain prediction market on Base, collateralized in USDC. Wallet sign-up with no identity check; not available to users from the US, Ontario, Alberta and other listed jurisdictions.

Data freshness unknownFull catalog sweepAMM / CLOBSettles in USDCNo KYCCheck availability

Total Events

178,329

609 open events

Total Volume

$2.6B

$17.2K derived from cumulative-volume change

Total Liquidity

$2M

2 avg outcomes

Resolution evidence

Verified resolution data

Verified outcomes: 169,087
Verified settlement times: 54,542
Calibration-ready histories: 1,524
Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)

Coverage ledger

Full sweep

Catalog: 178,309 (614 open)
Provider-verified resolutions: 169,060 (95%)
Price history since 2026-04-11
Freshness p95: 7m
Last full sync: 64m

Known gaps

Oracle settlement time is published for daily/hourly series only; 15-minute and sports settle without one.

Top Categories

One-OffSportsSoccerCryptoEsports

View Limitless Markets Full profile

Robinhood (Rothera)

robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/

CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse from Robinhood's joint venture with Susquehanna; retail customers trade its Yes/No contracts through Robinhood, which requires US residency. CoinRithm reads its daily clearing data and live Robinhood prices.

Data freshness unknownFull catalog sweepCLOBSettles in USDKYC requiredCheck availability

Total Events

2,116

356 open events

Total Volume

Not reported

$4M latest completed day

Open interest

$85.9M

9.7 avg outcomes

Resolution evidence

Limited verified data

Verified outcomes: 1,278
Verified settlement times: 0
Calibration-ready histories: 0
Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)

Coverage ledger

Full sweep

Catalog: 2,116 (356 open)
Provider-verified resolutions: 1,278 (73%)
Price history since 2026-07-07
Freshness p95: 7m
Last full sync: 64m

Top Categories

One-OffSportsPoliticsElectionsUS Politics

View Robinhood (Rothera) Markets Full profile

Myriad

myriad.markets

Non-custodial on-chain prediction market settling in USD stablecoins on Abstract, BNB Smart Chain and Linea, alongside play-money Points markets. Not permitted for residents of the US, France, Singapore, Switzerland, Ontario and other listed places. CoinRithm counts money figures from stablecoin markets only.

Data freshness unknownFull catalog sweepAMM / CLOBSettles in USD stablecoins (USDC, USDT, USD1)No KYCCheck availability

Total Events

1,289

70 open events

Total Volume

$148.6M

$643.3 trailing 24 hours

Total Liquidity

$34.9K

2.8 avg outcomes

Resolution evidence

Limited verified data

Verified outcomes: 1,200
Verified settlement times: 0
Calibration-ready histories: 0
Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)

Coverage ledger

Full sweep

Catalog: 1,289 (70 open)
Provider-verified resolutions: 1,200 (98%)
Price history since 2026-07-08
Freshness p95: 2s
Last full sync: 65m

Top Categories

One-OffSportsSoccerCryptoExchange

View Myriad Markets Full profile

Gemini

www.gemini.com/predictions

Gemini Predictions: Yes/No event contracts listed on Gemini Titan, a CFTC-designated contract market, and traded on an order book in US dollars. Available to US users only; identity verification is required.

Data freshness unknownFull catalog sweepOrder bookSettles in USDKYC requiredCheck availability

Total Events

139,868

799 open events

Total Volume

$100.7M

$139.6K trailing 24 hours

Total Liquidity

Not reported

2.1 avg outcomes

Resolution evidence

Verified resolution data

Verified outcomes: 138,033
Verified settlement times: 138,011
Calibration-ready histories: 2,862
Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)

Coverage ledger

Full sweep

Catalog: 139,822 (811 open)
Provider-verified resolutions: 137,986 (99%)
Price history since 2026-07-27
Freshness p95: 7m
Last full sync: 64m

Top Categories

One-OffSportsAmerican FootballSoccerElections

View Gemini Markets Full profile

ForecastEx

forecastex.com

Interactive Brokers affiliate and CFTC-registered exchange for Yes/No Forecast Contracts on economics, elections and climate, traded through member brokers. Winning contracts settle at $1, and the exchange charges $0.01 per contract per side.

Data freshness unknownFull catalog sweepOrder book (buy-only bids)Settles in USDKYC requiredCheck availability

Total Events

50,423

3,668 open events

Total Volume

Not reported

$147.6K latest completed day

Open interest

$9.9M

2 avg outcomes

Resolution evidence

Limited verified data

Verified outcomes: 35,504
Verified settlement times: 0
Calibration-ready histories: 0
Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)

Coverage ledger

Full sweep

Catalog: 50,416 (3,705 open)
Provider-verified resolutions: 35,490 (76%)
Verified resolution archive: 213,137 (212,327 provider-grade; 2024-08-01 → 2026-08-10; 740/740 files)
Price history since 2026-07-11
Freshness p95: 7m
Last full sync: 64m

Top Categories

One-OffPoliticsElectionsUS Politics2026 US Midterms

View ForecastEx Markets Full profile

Smarkets

smarkets.com

Peer-to-peer betting exchange for sports and politics, licensed by the UK Gambling Commission, with accounts in GBP, EUR or SEK. Identity checks are required, residents of the US and other listed countries cannot register, and the standard commission is 2% of net winnings.

Data freshness unknownFull catalog sweepOrder book (visible depth, payout notional)Settles in GBP, EUR or SEKKYC requiredCheck availability

Total Events

168

113 open events

Total Volume

$1.8M

$2.7K derived from cumulative-volume change

Total Liquidity

$17.2M

3.5 avg outcomes

Resolution evidence

Limited verified data

Verified outcomes: 21
Verified settlement times: 21
Calibration-ready histories: 0
Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)

Coverage ledger

Bounded sweep

Catalog: 168 (113 open)
Provider-verified resolutions: 21 (38%)
Price history since 2026-04-12
Freshness p95: 8d
Last full sync: not yet

Top Categories

One-OffPoliticsElectionsUS Politics2026 US Midterms

View Smarkets Markets Full profile

Futuur

futuur.com

Prediction market licensed in Anjouan (Comoros), with real-money markets in USDC or USDT and separate play-money Ooms markets. Real money is closed to the US, UK, Australia and other listed countries; play money is open everywhere. CoinRithm counts money figures from real-money markets only.

Data freshness unknownFull catalog sweepOrder book + AMM (LS-LMSR)Settles in USDC or USDTCheck availability

Total Events

211,559

705 open events

Total Volume

$983.2K

$8.3K derived from cumulative-volume change

Total Liquidity

$1.4M

2.4 avg outcomes

Resolution evidence

Verified resolution data

Verified outcomes: 208,961
Verified settlement times: 208,731
Calibration-ready histories: 34
Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)

Coverage ledger

Full sweep

Catalog: 211,559 (706 open)
Provider-verified resolutions: 208,961 (99%)
Price history since 2026-07-08
Freshness p95: 2m
Last full sync: 63m

Open universe verified: 706 of 706 published by venue (venue-published count)

Known gaps

Most resolved markets were backfilled after settling, so they carry an outcome and a settlement time but no probability observed while they were open — they cannot be scored for calibration.

Top Categories

One-OffSportsPoliticsUS PoliticsSoccer

View Futuur Markets Full profile

Manifold Markets

manifold.markets

Play-money prediction market where anyone can create and trade markets using mana, a virtual currency that can never be cashed out. No identity check is needed to join.

Data freshness unknownFull catalog sweepLimit orders + AMM (CPMM)Settles in Mana (play money)No KYC

Total Events

49,557

34,332 open events

Total Volume

Not reported

Total Liquidity

Not reported

4 avg outcomes

Resolution evidence

Verified resolution data

Verified outcomes: 10,625
Verified settlement times: 10,749
Calibration-ready histories: 1,666
Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)

Coverage ledger

Full sweep

Catalog: 49,556 (34,333 open)
Provider-verified resolutions: 10,624 (70%)
Price history since 2026-04-11
Freshness p95: 21.5h
Last full sync: 61m

Known gaps

Voided (N/A) markets look unresolved in the feed, so some closed markets hold no winner.
Search stops paginating past an offset ceiling: the open set is a bounded slice, not the full catalog.

Top Categories

One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsAITech

View Manifold Markets Markets Full profile

Metaculus

www.metaculus.com

Community forecasting platform focused on probabilistic estimates and forecaster track records.

Data freshness unknownFull catalog sweep

Total Events

2 open events

Total Volume

Not reported

Total Liquidity

Not reported

2.5 avg outcomes

Resolution evidence

Unverified resolution data

Verified outcomes: 0
Verified settlement times: 0
Calibration-ready histories: 0
Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)

Coverage ledger

Full sweep

Catalog: 4 (2 open)
Provider-verified resolutions: 0 (0%)
Price history since 2026-03-31
Freshness p95: 21s
Last full sync: 63m

Known gaps

Metaculus's authenticated API withholds community probabilities on most questions and resolution outcomes for questions this account did not forecast; CoinRithm only publishes the permitted sparse slice and cannot verify those winners.

Top Categories

PoliticsOne-OffEurope2026 US MidtermsUS Politics

View Metaculus Markets Full profile

PredictIt

www.predictit.org

Real-money political prediction market operating under CFTC staff no-action relief, open only to US persons, with a $3,500 per-contract cap. PredictIt takes 10% of profits and charges 3% on card deposits.

Data freshness unknownFull catalog sweepOrder bookSettles in USDKYC requiredCheck availability

Total Events

571

204 open events

Total Volume

Not reported

Total Liquidity

Not reported

4.6 avg outcomes

Resolution evidence

Unverified resolution data

Verified outcomes: 0
Verified settlement times: 0
Calibration-ready histories: 0
Settlement revisions: 0%(stable settlements)

Coverage ledger

Full sweep

Catalog: 570 (203 open)
Provider-verified resolutions: 0 (0%)
Price history since 2026-03-31
Freshness p95: 7s
Last full sync: 63m

Open universe verified: 203 of 203 published by venue (venue returns its whole list in one response)

Known gaps

Feed reports closure but never names the winning contract: settlement time without a provider winner.

Top Categories

One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElections2026 US Midterms

View PredictIt Markets Full profile

	Kalshi	Polymarket	Limitless	Robinhood (Rothera)	Myriad	Gemini	ForecastEx	Smarkets	Futuur	Manifold Markets	Metaculus	PredictIt
Total Events	539,662	751,139	178,329	2,116	1,289	139,868	50,423	168	211,559	49,557	4	571
Open Events	14,316	19,214	609	356	70	799	3,668	113	705	34,332	2	204
Closed Events	525,346	731,925	177,720	1,760	1,219	139,069	46,755	55	210,854	15,225	2	367
Total Volume	$93,941,541,186	$44,688,873,765	$2,623,615,994	Not reported	$148,620,282	$100,692,472	Not reported	$1,800,307	$983,169	Not reported	Not reported	Not reported
Reported volume	$68,334,642 · Trailing 24 hours	$51,197,061 · Trailing 24 hours	$17,157 · Derived from cumulative-volume change	$3,980,783 · Latest completed day	$643 · Trailing 24 hours	$139,558 · Trailing 24 hours	$147,612 · Latest completed day	$2,743 · Derived from cumulative-volume change	$8,329 · Derived from cumulative-volume change	Not reported	Not reported	Not reported
Liquidity or open interest	$1,263,226,265 (Open interest)	$956,347,012	$2,000,300	$85,946,203 (Open interest)	$34,939	Not reported	$9,859,619 (Open interest)	$17,170,554	$1,413,031	Not reported	Not reported	Not reported
Avg Outcomes	11.5	5.6	2	9.7	2.8	2.1	2	3.5	2.4	4	2.5	4.6
Liquidity model	CLOB	CLOB	AMM / CLOB	CLOB	AMM / CLOB	Order book	Order book (buy-only bids)	Order book (visible depth, payout notional)	Order book + AMM (LS-LMSR)	Limit orders + AMM (CPMM)	—	Order book
Settlement currency	USD	pUSD (USDC-backed)	USDC	USD	USD stablecoins (USDC, USDT, USD1)	USD	USD	GBP, EUR or SEK	USDC or USDT	Mana (play money)	—	USD
KYC / Identity	Required	Not required	Not required	Required	Not required	Required	Required	Required	—	Not required	—	Required
Taker fee	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Maker fee	—	No fee	No fee	—	No fee	—	—	—	No fee	—	—	—
Geographic access	Check availability	Check availability	Check availability	Check availability	Check availability	Check availability	Check availability	Check availability	Check availability	Forecast/play-money source	Forecast/play-money source	Check availability

Platform availability by country

Not all platforms are available in every country. See which platforms you can access based on where you are.

View availability

Canonical events

The same real-world question listed on several venues, joined into one record. Each record shows every venue's listing, how confident the match is and every correction made.

View canonical events

Forecast accuracy

Full calibration report →

How closely each venue's prices matched real outcomes.

KalshiWell calibrated

Calibration error (lower is better): 1.7 pp
Avg. winner confidence: 56%
Predicted / Actual: 1,812 markets

PolymarketWell calibrated

Calibration error (lower is better): 2.2 pp
Avg. winner confidence: 51%
Predicted / Actual: 1,260 markets

Manifold MarketsFairly calibrated

Calibration error (lower is better): 4.2 pp
Avg. winner confidence: 79%
Predicted / Actual: 202 markets

GeminiRoughly calibrated

Calibration error (lower is better): 9.6 pp
Avg. winner confidence: 59%
Predicted / Actual: 54 markets

LimitlessRoughly calibrated

Calibration error (lower is better): 10.3 pp
Avg. winner confidence: 51%
Predicted / Actual: 121 markets

Predicted → Actual · dashed line = perfect calibration · Based on each outcome's probability about 24 hours before it resolved, across resolved markets with at least 24 hours of price history. Short-duration markets are excluded.

Calibration pending: ForecastEx, Futuur, Metaculus, Myriad, PredictIt, Robinhood (Rothera), Smarkets — not enough resolved history with 24h+ prices yet

Source Comparison

Data health

Kalshi

Polymarket

Limitless

Robinhood (Rothera)

Myriad

Gemini

ForecastEx

Smarkets

Futuur

Manifold Markets

Metaculus

PredictIt

Forecast accuracy

Related reading

Source Comparison

Data health

Kalshi

Polymarket

Limitless

Robinhood (Rothera)

Myriad

Gemini

ForecastEx

Smarkets

Futuur

Manifold Markets

Metaculus

PredictIt

Forecast accuracy

Related reading