Author profile
Prediction Markets Editor
Admin writes CoinRithm's prediction market, platform comparison, and regulatory explainers. His work focuses on Polymarket, Kalshi, market mechanics, pricing, fees, and availability across jurisdictions.
Published articles
64
Latest article
August 11, 2026
Our named editors link to public professional profiles so readers can verify identity and role beyond the site itself.
ForecastEx is a CFTC-regulated event contract exchange from Interactive Brokers, focused on politics and macro. Learn how it works and research it on CoinRithm.
Gemini, the Winklevoss-founded US crypto exchange, now runs CFTC-regulated prediction markets on crypto prices, sports, and events. Learn how they work.
Most AI trading 'track records' are unfalsifiable screenshots. How to actually verify one: immutable decision artifacts, content hashes you can recompute, honest provenance, and two-track scoring — with CoinRithm's public proofs.
When a prediction market resolves, what proof do you have that the outcome shown is the outcome recorded — and that it wasn't quietly changed? CoinRithm's append-only settlement provenance ledger, explained.
An AI agent that only shows you its trades is showing you a highlight reel. Why the decisions it skipped — abstentions, rejections, expired quotes — are the difference between an honest track record and survivorship bias.
An AI agent that buys at the market price has not made a forecast — it has echoed one. How CoinRithm captures independent agent forecasts, measures edge, and scores skill with Brier, honestly.
Prediction market accuracy is measurable, not a slogan. How calibration, Brier scores, and reliability bins actually score a venue — and how CoinRithm computes them across Polymarket, Kalshi, and every real-money market.
The same question priced at 62% and 71% on two venues looks like free money. It usually is not. How prediction market arbitrage really works — fees, settlement risk, resolution mismatch, and liquidity.
Not every prediction market price deserves your trust. How CoinRithm scores quality, flags thin, ambiguous, or near-resolution markets, and keeps blocked markets visible instead of hiding them.
Liquidity, spread, and order-book depth decide whether a prediction market price is real. Order books versus AMMs, why thin markets lie, and how to read microstructure across Polymarket, Kalshi, and more.
There is no single European prediction market law. How the EU, national gambling regulators, and MiCA actually apply, why venues geoblock, and how to check access in your country.
Polls measure opinion; prediction markets price probability. How they differ, when each is more reliable, why they disagree, and how to read both together for elections and beyond.
Futuur is a prediction market that runs both a real-money book and a play-money book. Learn how it works, why the play-vs-real split changes how you read its odds, and how to research it on CoinRithm.
Myriad is an on-chain prediction market that prices outcomes with an AMM and runs both stablecoin and play-money (PTS points) markets. Learn how it works and how to research it on CoinRithm.
Rothera is a CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange founded by Robinhood and Susquehanna, with heavy sports coverage. Learn how it works and research it on CoinRithm.
How CoinRithm computes one canonical probability per real-world question across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Smarkets, and PredictIt — a liquidity-capped weighted median, always shown with venue count and spread.
Is Polymarket or Kalshi legal where you live? A country-by-country look at prediction market regulation in the US, UK, EU, Canada, Australia, and India for 2026.
How crypto price prediction markets work across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless — price targets, range contracts, resolution feeds, and how to read the odds.
Six AI trading agent strategy archetypes for crypto and prediction markets — the hypothesis, the data, the agent rules, and the honest failure mode for each, evaluated in paper trading.
How box office, Oscars, Grammy, and TV prediction markets work, why they quantify hype better than press coverage, and the thin-liquidity, longshot-bias caveats to know before reading them.
How Fed rate, CPI, jobs, and recession prediction markets work on Kalshi and beyond — what they cover, why they resolve against official data, and how to read the odds.
How election prediction markets price candidates and outcomes, how they compare to polls, where to trade (Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, Smarkets), and how to track live election odds.
Why prediction markets are a natural fit for AI agents: probabilities as prices, hard resolution dates, and calibration as the real metric — plus how CoinRithm supports it in paper mUSD.
How do prediction markets resolve? See how Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, Metaculus, PredictIt, and Smarkets determine outcomes, and how to read the rules before you trade.
How to deposit on Kalshi with ACH bank transfer, debit card, wire, or crypto: minimum deposits, fees, processing times, and which method fits you.
Learn what a prediction market whale trade actually is, what large prints signal (and do not), and how to read Polymarket and Kalshi whale flow without over-trusting it.
Learn how to use Kalshi step by step: sign up and verify your identity, fund with a bank account or debit card, find a market, place your first order, and withdraw.
Kalshi is CFTC-regulated federally, but several states dispute its sports contracts in court. Here is the federal-vs-state split explained, state by state.
Is Polymarket legal in the US in 2026? The 2022 CFTC settlement, the geoblocking era, the QCEX-powered Polymarket US relaunch, and what to verify first.
Looking for Kalshi alternatives? Compare Polymarket, Limitless, Smarkets, Manifold, Metaculus, and PredictIt by regulation, currency, and market fit.
Looking for Polymarket alternatives? Compare Kalshi, PredictIt, Smarkets, Manifold, Metaculus, and Limitless by regulation, currency, and market fit.
How Polymarket fees actually work in 2026: the new category-based taker fees, gas and relayer costs, bridging, spread, and what is genuinely free.
A free, keyless JSON API for cross-venue prediction market data — Polymarket, Kalshi, and 5 more, one schema. Real endpoints, real responses, worked examples.
Why the same event trades at different probabilities on Polymarket, Kalshi, and other venues, when the gap is signal versus noise, and why textbook arbitrage rarely works for retail.
Why prediction markets get disputed, how Polymarket UMA and Kalshi determination reviews actually work, and real controversies traders should know before holding a position through resolution.
Is Polymarket or Kalshi resolution reliable? A five-part settlement-trust framework — who decides, what evidence, contestability, track record, counterparty risk — for any prediction market.
What prediction market volume, open interest, and liquidity actually mean, why cross-venue volume numbers are rarely apples-to-apples, and where to find the live, methodology-disclosed figures.
Is Polymarket or Kalshi legal in the UK? How the Gambling Commission classifies prediction markets, what is restricted, and the licensed betting-exchange alternatives UK residents can actually use in 2026.
How prediction markets differ from a sportsbook — pricing, exit, and fees — and an honest answer to whether Polymarket and Kalshi trading is gambling.
How sports prediction markets work on Kalshi and Polymarket, why they trade differently from a sportsbook, and what the "is this gambling" question actually means.
How to engineer hard risk caps for an AI trading agent: position sizing, portfolio limits, loss controls, rate limits, sanity checks, and kill switches — enforced in code, not prompts.
What agentic trading actually means: how an AI trading agent differs from a bot, the autonomy spectrum, the four parts every agent needs, and why paper trading is the honest way to test one.
How to withdraw from Kalshi step by step: bank (ACH), debit card, and crypto options, how long each takes, the fees, and what you can actually withdraw.
How to withdraw from Polymarket step by step: the three cash-out paths, how long withdrawals take, fees, the 2-hour resolved-market wait, and mistakes to avoid.
How Kalshi fees work: the trading fee formula, why 50/50 markets cost the most, maker vs taker, and which deposits and withdrawals are free.
Learn how to compare prediction markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless and more in one dashboard: probability divergence, fees, liquidity, and resolution rules.
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US event-contract exchange. Learn how it works, what makes it different from offshore prediction markets, and how CoinRithm tracks Kalshi odds.
Limitless is a crypto-native, on-chain prediction market with fast-resolving markets that settle in crypto. Learn how it works and how to research it on CoinRithm.
Manifold is a free play-money prediction market where anyone can create markets and trade with virtual currency. Learn how it works and how CoinRithm aggregates its markets.
Learn what Metaculus is, how its reputational forecasting system works, how it differs from real-money prediction markets, and how CoinRithm aggregates its questions.
Learn what PredictIt is, how it works under a CFTC no-action letter, its per-market caps, fees, and how to research PredictIt markets on CoinRithm.
Learn what Smarkets is, how its peer-to-peer back/lay exchange model works, what markets it covers, and how CoinRithm aggregates Smarkets odds for research.
Learn how to bridge USDC to Polygon for Polymarket, when bridging is needed, and the safest beginner flow before you deposit.
Learn Polymarket deposit methods, supported chains, funding routes, and how to choose between Polygon transfer, bridge routes, Coinbase, and card funding.
Learn whether prediction markets are legal in the US in 2026, how CFTC oversight works, and why Kalshi and Polymarket are not the same legal story.
Learn the most common prediction market mistakes beginners make, including rule-reading errors, overtrading, poor sizing, and probability mistakes.
Learn how prediction market probabilities work, how prices map to odds, how payouts work, and why high-probability markets can still lose.
Learn how to deposit on Polymarket with USDC on Polygon, which network Polymarket uses, deposit routes, and beginner mistakes to avoid.
Learn how to use, trade on, and get started with Polymarket step by step: wallet setup, USDC funding, market selection, and first trade workflow.
Compare Kalshi vs Polymarket in 2026 across legality, fees, deposits, liquidity, market variety, and beginner fit. Clear decision guide for US and global users.
Check Polymarket's restricted countries list for 2026, including allowed, supported, blocked, and geo-restricted countries and regions.
Compare prediction market fees in 2026 across Polymarket, Kalshi, Robinhood, PredictIt, Drift BET, and more to see which platform is cheapest.
Compare the 10 best prediction market sites and platforms in 2026, with fees, features, regional availability, and who each platform is best for.
Learn what Polymarket is, how it works, whether it is safe or legit, what fees beginners should know, and how it fits into prediction markets.