If you searched for what is PredictIt, how does PredictIt work, or is PredictIt still available, this is the main explainer for that intent.
If you want the broader category first, start here: What Are Prediction Markets in Crypto?.
If you want side-by-side platform comparisons, read Best Prediction Markets in 2026 or go straight to the Prediction Market Comparison Page.
If you want to understand how market prices translate to probabilities, read How Prediction Market Probabilities Work.
PredictIt is one of the longest-running real-money political prediction markets in the United States, built around the idea that people with skin in the game make better political forecasts than polls alone. It operates under a specific regulatory arrangement, CFTC staff no-action relief, which has shaped almost everything about how the platform is structured: the $3,500 cap per contract, the politics-only focus, the academic-research framing. Understanding those constraints explains why PredictIt works the way it does.
TL;DR
- PredictIt is a real-money political prediction market run by a US not-for-profit under CFTC staff no-action relief, and only U.S. persons aged 18 or over can trade.
- Each trader can invest up to $3,500 in any single contract (the cap was $850 until July 2025), which keeps individual exposure small.
- PredictIt takes 10% of your profit on a winning trade and nothing on losing or break-even trades. Standard withdrawals are free, and credit card deposits cost 3%, except your first deposit up to $1,000.
- Markets cover US politics almost exclusively: elections, nominations, legislative outcomes, approval ratings.
- Use CoinRithm's PredictIt hub to browse live PredictIt markets and odds without creating an account. CoinRithm is not PredictIt and does not execute real trades.
What Is PredictIt
PredictIt is a real-money prediction market where users buy and sell shares on political outcomes, primarily US elections, legislative events, nominations, and approval ratings.
It began under a CFTC no-action letter granted in October 2014 to Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand, which ran it as an academic-research project. A July 14, 2025 amendment to that letter let the university hand the market to the Prediction Market Research Consortium, a US not-for-profit, and PredictIt now describes itself as a project of that consortium for educational purposes. Aristotle International, a US data processing and verification company, provides age and identity verification and trade clearing and processing. The no-action relief lets PredictIt offer political event contracts to U.S. persons under conditions that keep its scale limited. That regulatory framing is not a technicality: it is the foundation of PredictIt's entire design.
Unlike crypto-native platforms, PredictIt requires no blockchain wallet. You can fund an account with standard payment methods and trade directly in dollars. The trade-off is the structural constraints baked into the no-action framework: small position caps, a narrower market catalog, and a 10% profit fee that costs more on a winning trade than most newer alternatives charge.
Ground truth: PredictIt's regulatory status has been contested. In 2022, CFTC staff moved to withdraw its no-action letter. The withdrawal was challenged in court, and on July 22, 2025, in Clarke v. CFTC, the federal district court for the Western District of Texas vacated it as arbitrary and capricious and permanently barred the CFTC from closing the PredictIt market based on facts it already knew. A week earlier, on July 14, 2025, CFTC staff had amended the original letter: they approved the move to the new operator, removed the limit of 5,000 traders per contract, and tied the cap per contract to the federal campaign contribution limit, currently $3,500. Regulatory status can change. Before depositing real money, verify PredictIt's current operational status and eligibility rules at predictit.org.
How the CFTC No-Action Letter Works
A no-action letter from the CFTC is not a license. It is a statement that the CFTC staff will not recommend enforcement action against a platform that meets specific conditions. PredictIt's conditions are what create its characteristic structure.
The conditions included requirements like:
- Limiting each contract to 5,000 traders (a limit CFTC staff removed in July 2025)
- Capping each trader's investment in any single contract, at $850 until July 2025 and now at the federal limit on individual campaign contributions, currently $3,500
- Operating as a small-scale, not-for-profit market for educational and research purposes, not commercial trading
- Restricting the market to political events, such as elections, and excluding questions involving war, terrorism or assassination
These are the reasons PredictIt is politics-only (the relief restricts it to political events), why position caps exist (CFTC staff says the investment caps keep the market small-scale), and why its user base has stayed relatively niche compared to CFTC-regulated exchanges like Kalshi that hold full CFTC designation as Designated Contract Markets (DCMs).
If you want to understand how this fits into the broader US regulatory picture for prediction markets, read Are Prediction Markets Legal in the US?.
How PredictIt Works
The core mechanics are the same as any prediction market.
1. Markets are created around specific political questions with defined outcomes, resolution rules, and an end date.
2. Users buy shares in one or more outcomes. Share prices range from $0.01 to $0.99 and reflect the market's collective estimate of the probability of that outcome.
3. Prices shift as new information arrives: polling, news, endorsements, official announcements. Traders update positions accordingly.
4. The market resolves when the real-world event occurs, according to rules defined when the market was created.
5. Winners collect $1.00 per share. Losers' shares become worthless.
Simple example:
A market asks: "Will the Democratic candidate win the presidential primary in State X?"
If "Yes" shares are priced at $0.62, the market implies roughly a 62% probability. If you buy Yes shares at $0.62 and that outcome resolves, each share pays $1.00, a profit of $0.38 per share, before fees.
Resolution rules are specific. PredictIt defines what sources it uses to resolve markets, what counts as a qualifying outcome, and what happens in edge cases (withdrawn candidates, delayed results). Read the rules for each market before buying.
PredictIt's Market Focus
PredictIt's catalog is almost entirely US politics. That is both its strength and its principal limitation.
Markets you will find on PredictIt:
- Presidential election outcomes (national and by state)
- Congressional races (House and Senate seats)
- Presidential approval ratings
- Cabinet nominations and Senate confirmation outcomes
- Legislative and budget outcomes
- Party primary outcomes
- Governor and Senate special elections
- A few non-US political races, such as Israel's next prime minister and France's next presidential election (as of September 2026)
Markets you will not find:
- Crypto price outcomes
- Sports outcomes
- Questions involving war, terrorism or assassination (excluded by its CFTC relief)
- Entertainment
- Economic indicator markets (Fed rate decisions, GDP, etc.)
For users who want to trade on US political events specifically, this narrow focus is a feature: PredictIt has a long-running community of traders who follow the political calendar closely. For users who want broader market variety, PredictIt will feel limiting fast.
Browse PredictIt's current active markets without an account at the PredictIt hub on CoinRithm, or compare its coverage against other sources on the prediction market sources directory.
Fees and Position Caps
This is where PredictIt diverges most sharply from competitors. Verify current terms at predictit.org before trading, as these can change.
According to PredictIt's FAQ and terms, as of September 2026:
| Item | PredictIt (verify current terms) |
|---|---|
| Per-contract position cap | $3,500 per trader in any single contract |
| Profit fee | 10% of your profit when you sell above cost or redeem at $1; no fee on losing or break-even trades |
| Withdrawal fee | None on standard withdrawals from active accounts |
| Deposit fee | 3% by credit card, except your first deposit up to $1,000; bank transfer and other methods free |
| Share price | $0.01 to $0.99; winning shares redeem at $1 |
| Funding methods | Bank transfer, credit card and other methods (no crypto wallet required) |
What those fees mean in practice:
Suppose you invest $100, win, and make $40 in profit on a market. PredictIt takes 10% of that profit ($4.00), leaving you $136, and withdrawing it costs nothing because standard withdrawals are free. If the $100 came from a credit card deposit after your first deposit, add a $3.00 processing fee. Total fee drag: $4.00 on a $40 profit, or $7.00 with the card fee.
That is a meaningful percentage of your return, especially on smaller positions. For full side-by-side fee comparisons across platforms, read Prediction Market Fees Comparison.
The position cap is both a constraint and a feature. A hard cap of $3,500 per contract means the money you can put into any single contract is bounded. The cap counts what you spend buying shares; later price changes do not change it. That appeals to casual political observers who want to put a small, defined amount of money on an election outcome without worrying about runaway exposure. It also means you cannot scale a winning edge: serious traders who find good opportunities hit the ceiling quickly.
PredictIt vs Other Platforms
The short comparison relevant to the most common questions:
PredictIt vs Kalshi:
Kalshi is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market (DCM), which means it operates under a full exchange license rather than a no-action letter. Kalshi accepts US residents and, since 2026, users in many other countries, has broader market categories (economics, weather, entertainment alongside politics), allows larger position sizes, and charges a per-trade fee instead of a share of your profit: on 100 contracts at 50 cents, Kalshi charges $1.75, while PredictIt charges nothing to buy and $5.00 if the contract wins. For most US users interested in political markets, Kalshi has become the stronger option, though PredictIt's community around US elections remains engaged.
PredictIt vs Polymarket:
Polymarket.com is a crypto-based platform whose balances are held in pUSD, a token backed 1:1 by USDC. Its market catalog is far broader, makers pay no fees, and takers pay a fee that depends on the market's category and price. It is not open to US residents, who can use Polymarket US, a separate CFTC-regulated app that trades in US dollars. PredictIt is the reverse of Polymarket.com: open only to U.S. persons, politics-only, no crypto required.
For a full comparison, use the Prediction Market Comparison Page or read Kalshi vs Polymarket.
How CoinRithm Covers PredictIt Markets
CoinRithm aggregates prediction markets from multiple sources, including PredictIt, and surfaces them in one place for research. You do not need a PredictIt account to see what is trading or at what odds.
What CoinRithm shows for PredictIt markets:
- Live market odds and probability for each outcome
- Odds history (how prices have moved over time)
- Market volume and activity
- Resolution rules pulled from PredictIt
- Cross-source comparison (see if a similar market exists on Kalshi or Polymarket at different odds)
The PredictIt hub on CoinRithm is the starting point for this. You can also browse the full prediction markets hub for all sources combined, or use the compare page to see the same event priced differently across platforms.
CoinRithm is not PredictIt. CoinRithm does not execute real trades and is not a broker. What you see on CoinRithm is aggregated data for research.
Researching PredictIt Markets Before Trading
The strongest use of CoinRithm before touching real money on PredictIt is in the research and calibration phase.
Paper trading on CoinRithm:
CoinRithm's mock trading feature lets you take positions on prediction market events using simulated USD (minimum $10) before risking real money anywhere. This is useful for:
- Testing whether your read on a political race is correct before committing real dollars
- Understanding how odds move during an election cycle
- Getting comfortable with position sizing without actual financial risk
This is not PredictIt paper trading: CoinRithm's mock system is entirely separate from PredictIt. But it covers the same markets, which makes it a useful calibration tool.
Odds history:
Before buying on PredictIt, check whether the price you are seeing is near a peak or a trough in recent movement. The odds history charts on CoinRithm show this. Buying at $0.80 on a market that was at $0.55 three weeks ago and just spiked on a single news story is a different decision than buying at $0.80 on a market that has been stable for months.
Cross-platform comparison:
If the same real-world event is priced at 70% on PredictIt and 62% on Kalshi, that gap is meaningful. Cross-platform price differences exist because different platforms have different trader bases, liquidity conditions, and market structures. The compare page surfaces these discrepancies.
Resolution rules:
Before any trade, read the resolution rules for that specific market. PredictIt's rules define exactly what counts: which source they use, what happens in delayed results, what happens if a candidate withdraws. Misreading the rules is the most common beginner mistake across all prediction market platforms.
Is PredictIt Legal and Safe
Legal status:
PredictIt operates under CFTC staff no-action relief, first granted in October 2014 and amended on July 14, 2025. Its terms say PredictIt is not regulated by the CFTC and its operators are not registered with it. The CFTC's 2022 attempt to withdraw the relief ended on July 22, 2025, when a federal district court in Texas vacated the withdrawal and permanently barred the CFTC from closing the market based on facts it already knew. Its long track record, over a decade of US political markets, reflects the stability of its core model, but the regulatory situation is more complex than a simple "yes, it is licensed" answer.
For U.S. persons, PredictIt is one of several ways to trade US political markets with real money and no cryptocurrency, alongside CFTC-regulated exchanges such as Kalshi and Polymarket US. It is not a fully-licensed exchange in the way Kalshi is. Always verify current operational and legal status before depositing.
For the fuller US legal context, read Are Prediction Markets Legal in the US?.
Platform safety:
PredictIt has operated for over a decade and has an established track record of resolving markets and processing withdrawals. It is not a fly-by-night operation. The practical risks are:
- Regulatory change could affect account access or the ability to withdraw
- Markets occasionally produce disputes about resolution (PredictIt has a defined process for these)
- The fee structure means you need to win meaningfully to net a real return
Risk factors to manage:
- Position caps mean per-contract exposure is bounded, which limits catastrophic loss but also limits return
- Read resolution rules before every trade
- Check that you are eligible: only U.S. persons aged 18 or over (US citizens living anywhere in the world, or resident aliens) can open an account, so most people outside the US cannot. CoinRithm's availability page shows PredictIt's status by country.
- Only use money you can afford to lose; prediction markets are not guaranteed income
Common Mistakes
Not reading resolution rules. Markets resolve on specific criteria. A "Yes" resolution might require a formal nomination to the Senate, not just a media announcement. Read the rules for every market before buying.
Ignoring fees. PredictIt's 10% profit fee is high relative to alternatives on a winning trade. A trade that looks profitable at face value may net less than you expect once the 10% profit fee, plus a 3% processing fee if you funded by credit card, is applied. Calculate actual returns, not just win/loss.
Treating polls as prices. A candidate polling at 60% nationally is not the same as a market pricing them at 60%. Markets incorporate information polls do not, including money, time, and trader incentives. They can diverge significantly, and either can be wrong.
Assuming the cap is a limit on risk. The $3,500 per-contract cap limits how much you can put into each contract. It does not prevent you from holding several contracts, even in the same market, or from being wrong across many markets at once.
Not checking odds history. A price of $0.75 means very different things depending on whether it moved there from $0.40 last week or has sat there for months. Use CoinRithm's odds history charts before making the trade.
Confusing probability with certainty. An 85% implied probability still means a 15% chance of being wrong. High-confidence markets can and do resolve against the favorite.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is PredictIt in simple terms
PredictIt is a website where you can buy and sell shares on US political outcomes using real money. If you buy a "Yes" share at $0.60 and that outcome happens, your share pays $1.00. If it does not happen, your share is worth nothing. Prices represent what the market collectively thinks the probability of each outcome is.
Is PredictIt legal in the US
PredictIt operates under CFTC staff no-action relief, which means CFTC staff will not recommend enforcement action while the market meets specific conditions; it is not a CFTC-registered exchange. CFTC staff tried to withdraw that relief in 2022, but on July 22, 2025 a federal district court in Texas vacated the withdrawal and permanently barred the CFTC from closing the market based on facts it already knew. As of September 2026, PredictIt is operating and open to U.S. persons aged 18 or over. Verify current status directly with PredictIt before depositing money.
How does PredictIt make money
PredictIt charges a fee of 10% of your profit whenever you sell shares for more than you paid or a winning share redeems at $1, and nothing on break-even or losing trades. Credit card deposits carry a 3% processing fee, except your first deposit up to $1,000, while bank transfers and standard withdrawals are free. On a winning trade, the 10% profit fee is higher than most competing platforms charge. Check current fee terms at predictit.org, as terms can change.
What is the PredictIt position limit
PredictIt caps each trader's investment in any single contract at $3,500, up from $850 before July 2025. The cap is a condition of its CFTC no-action relief, which ties it to the federal limit on individual campaign contributions per candidate per election, a figure the Federal Election Commission adjusts for inflation every two years. It counts the money you spend buying shares in a contract; later price changes do not affect it. Verify the current cap directly with PredictIt, as it is subject to change.
Does PredictIt require cryptocurrency
No. PredictIt uses US dollars and accepts standard payment methods like bank transfer and card. You do not need a crypto wallet.
What markets does PredictIt offer
PredictIt focuses almost exclusively on US political markets: presidential and congressional elections, nominations, approval ratings, legislative outcomes, and primary races. It does not offer crypto price, sports, or entertainment markets, because its CFTC no-action relief restricts it to political events.
Can I research PredictIt markets without creating an account
Yes. CoinRithm's PredictIt hub shows live PredictIt market odds, odds history, and resolution rules without requiring a PredictIt account. CoinRithm is not PredictIt and does not execute real trades.
How is PredictIt different from Kalshi
Kalshi is a CFTC-designated contract market (DCM), is open to adults in the US and many other countries, offers a broader range of markets, and charges a per-trade fee instead of taking 10% of your profit. PredictIt operates under a no-action letter, with a $3,500 cap per contract, a politics-only catalog, and eligibility limited to U.S. persons. For most US users, Kalshi now provides a more robust regulated option, but PredictIt retains a dedicated community around US election markets.
Can I paper trade PredictIt markets
Not on PredictIt itself. CoinRithm offers mock trading on prediction market events (including events sourced from PredictIt) using simulated USD, with a $10 minimum per position. This is CoinRithm's own simulated trading feature: it is not connected to PredictIt and does not involve real money.
What happens when a PredictIt market resolves
Winning shares redeem at $1.00 each, less PredictIt's fee of 10% of your profit on them. Losing shares pay $0.00. You can then withdraw your funds; PredictIt does not charge a fee for standard withdrawals from active accounts.
Conclusion
PredictIt occupies a specific and durable niche in the prediction market landscape: open to U.S. persons, fiat-funded, politics-only, built for casual political traders who want real stakes without crypto complexity. Its constraints (the position caps, the politics-only catalog, the 10% profit fee) are not accidents. They are structural outcomes of the regulatory arrangement that allows it to operate.
For US political events specifically, PredictIt has depth and an established community. For users who want broader market variety, lower fees on winning trades, or larger position sizes, alternatives like Kalshi now offer a more direct regulated path.
Where to go from here:
- Browse PredictIt's live markets and odds on CoinRithm: PredictIt Hub
- Compare PredictIt against other platforms: Prediction Market Comparison
- Practice with mock USD before using real money: CoinRithm Prediction Markets
- Understand the full platform landscape: Best Prediction Markets in 2026
- Compare fees in detail: Prediction Market Fees Comparison
- Understand the US legal context: Are Prediction Markets Legal in the US?
Last Updated: September 23, 2026
Disclaimer: Prediction markets involve financial risk. This guide is for educational purposes only and is not financial, legal, or investment advice. Verify the legal status of prediction markets and the operational status of any platform in your jurisdiction before participating. Only use money you can afford to lose.
