What Is Polymarket? How It Works, Fees, Safety, and US Access (2026)

Polymarket is a prediction market: a platform where people trade Yes and No shares on real-world events, from elections and sports to crypto prices and the economy. Each share trades between 1¢ and 99¢, the price works as the crowd's estimate of the probability, and a share on the correct outcome pays $1 when the market resolves.

Polymarket at a glance (updated September 2026):

Want the step-by-step workflow instead? Read How to Use Polymarket. For the wider category, start with What Are Prediction Markets in Crypto?. For access by country, read Polymarket Countries and Availability.

What Is Polymarket

Polymarket is a prediction market where users buy and sell shares on the outcome of real-world events. Instead of trading stocks, you trade on questions such as:

• "Which party will win the US House in the November 3, 2026 midterms?" (Politics)
• "Will Bitcoin close the week above a set price?" (Crypto)
• "Will the Fed cut rates at its next meeting?" (Finance)
• "Who will win the league title?" (Sports)

Each outcome has a price between 1¢ and 99¢, and that price reflects what the market collectively believes the probability is.

Simple example: if a Yes share trades at 85¢, the market implies roughly an 85% chance the event happens. If you think the real chance is higher, you buy Yes. If you think it is lower, you buy No or sell your Yes shares. When the event resolves, winning shares pay $1.00 each and losing shares become worthless.

Who runs it. Polymarket has operated since about June 2020, according to a 2022 order from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and describes itself as "the world's largest prediction market". The international site's Terms of Use are issued by Adventure One QSS, Inc. The US exchange is QCX LLC, a CFTC-designated contract market that now operates as Polymarket US. Users cannot create markets themselves: they can suggest ideas, and Polymarket decides what to list.

Polymarket in Numbers (CoinRithm Data, September 23, 2026)

These figures come from CoinRithm's Polymarket hub and venue calibration page, which update continuously, so live numbers will differ.

Polymarket vs Polymarket US

"Polymarket" now means two separate products with separate accounts and support teams.

Sources: Polymarket's website vs app guide, the Polymarket US documentation, and the polymarket.us site, checked September 23, 2026.

Why Polymarket Matters in 2026

• Wall Street money. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, announced an investment of up to $2 billion in October 2025 at a valuation of about $8 billion before the investment. In March 2026 it added $600 million, bringing its direct investment to $1.6 billion.
• Institutional data. In February 2026 ICE launched a Polymarket Signals and Sentiment tool and became the exclusive provider of that data to institutional capital markets.
• Search. In November 2025 Google announced that its AI-powered Google Finance would add prediction market data from Kalshi and Polymarket, starting with Labs users.
• A regulated US route. Polymarket US gives US residents a CFTC-regulated way in, including markets on the November 3, 2026 midterm elections.

To explore live Polymarket activity without an account, use CoinRithm's Polymarket hub, compare platforms, or browse the prediction market sources directory.

How Polymarket Works

Here is the full flow:

1. Listing. Polymarket lists a market with a specific question, outcomes, resolution rules and an end date.

2. Trading. Traders place buy and sell orders on an order book. When a Yes bid and a No bid add up to $1, the orders match and a new Yes and No pair is created.

3. Information arrives. News moves prices in real time. The price Polymarket displays is the midpoint between the best bid and the best ask, or the last trade if that gap is wider than 10¢.

4. Resolution. When the event ends, someone proposes the outcome to UMA's Optimistic Oracle and posts a bond, usually $750. If nobody disputes it within 2 hours, the market resolves. Disputed markets go to a vote of UMA token holders and take about 4 to 6 days.

5. Payouts. Winning shares are redeemed for $1.00 each in pUSD. Losing shares pay $0.00.

Outcomes and Prices Explained

Binary markets (Yes/No):

• Yes = the event will happen
• No = the event will not happen

Yes and No prices add up to about $1.00, give or take the spread.

Multi-outcome markets:

Some events have several possible outcomes, such as a list of candidates. Each outcome trades as its own Yes/No market, and the prices across all outcomes add up to about $1.00. If one candidate trades at 45¢, the market gives that person roughly a 45% chance.

What Probability Really Means

Key concept: prices are probabilities, not certainties.

If an outcome is priced at $0.80, the market is roughly saying there is an 80% chance it happens and a 20% chance it does not. That estimate can still be wrong.

If you want the dedicated explainer on prices, odds, and payout math, read How Prediction Market Probabilities Work.

Understanding Resolution Rules

Resolution rules are the most important thing to read before trading. The title describes the question, but the rules decide how it resolves.

Every market defines:

• What counts as a valid outcome (exact definitions)
• The data source used to decide the result
• The resolution date and time
• Edge cases (unusual scenarios)

Example rules text from a 2026 Polymarket market, captured in January 2026:

Market: "Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair"

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: U.S. Senate nominations records).

Notice how specific it is:

• It must be a formal nomination, not an announcement
• It must go to the U.S. Senate
• Acting appointments do not count
• The resolution source is official Senate records

Always read the rules. Many beginners lose money by assuming how a market resolves instead of reading how it actually does. Polymarket says it cannot alter or reverse a resolution once UMA finalizes it.

Market Categories

Polymarket groups markets into categories, which also set the trading fee:

What Changed at Polymarket in 2026

Perps work differently from prediction markets: there is no Yes/No resolution, positions use margin, and they can be liquidated. This guide covers Polymarket's prediction markets.

How to Use CoinRithm for Prediction Markets

CoinRithm Prediction Markets is built for discovery and research. Browse markets from many venues in one place, filter by category, compare outcomes, and read the rules before you trade anywhere.

1. Open the prediction markets page to see open markets, volume and liquidity. The screenshot below is from January 2026; live numbers differ.

CoinRithm Prediction Markets overview with stats and category filters (January 2026 screenshot).

2. Filter by topic, for example elections, crypto or sports.
3. Open a market to see its volume, liquidity, price history, outcomes and resolution rules.

Market detail with volume stats, trend chart, outcomes, and resolution rules (January 2026 screenshot).

4. Check the context: the compare page shows the same event on other venues, the whale tracker shows fills of $1,000 or more, and the calibration page shows how accurate each venue has been.
5. Practice or go to the venue. Use the market's Mock trade panel to take the position with mock USD, or click Open on Polymarket when you are ready to trade there.

CoinRithm = research and paper trading. Polymarket = real-money trading.

How to Start Trading on Polymarket

Once you have found a market and understand its rules:

1. Check access. polymarket.com is not available in the US or in more than 35 other countries, and its Terms of Use ban VPNs.
2. Sign up at polymarket.com with Google, email, or a crypto wallet such as MetaMask, Rabby or Phantom.
3. Deposit crypto from a supported network, or, where offered, buy crypto with a card through MoonPay. Your balance is held as pUSD.
4. Buy Yes or No, ideally small at first. A limit order that rests on the book avoids the taker fee.
5. Sell early, or claim after resolution, then withdraw to your wallet or an exchange.

Example trade (politics market, market order):

• Buy 100 Yes shares at 83¢ = $83.00
• Taker fee = 100 × 0.04 × 0.83 × 0.17 = $0.56
• If Yes wins: $100.00 back, a profit of $16.44
• If No wins: you lose the $83.56

You can sell at any time before resolution if someone is bidding, to take profits early or cut losses. For every step in detail, read How to Use Polymarket.

Polymarket vs Other Platforms

The short version:

• Polymarket offers a very wide range of markets on its international, crypto-based site.
• Polymarket US and Kalshi are CFTC-regulated US exchanges (designated contract markets).
• Other venues differ on access, funding, fees and market depth, and the same event is often priced differently across them.

If platform choice is your main question, use the dedicated pages:

• Prediction market comparison
• Kalshi vs Polymarket
• Polymarket Alternatives
• Best Prediction Markets in 2026

Is Polymarket Safe and Legit

This is one of the most common questions. Here is the practical answer.

Security and Trust

Polymarket is a legitimate, large platform:

• It has operated since 2020 and runs a CFTC-regulated US product.
• ICE, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, has invested $1.6 billion directly.
• It is non-custodial: Polymarket says it never takes possession of your funds.
• Its April 2026 exchange contracts were audited by Cantina and Quantstamp, are open source, and have a public bug bounty.
• Markets resolve through the UMA oracle, and Polymarket cannot reverse a finalized resolution.

Its history includes a regulatory settlement. In January 2022 the CFTC ordered Polymarket to pay a $1.4 million civil penalty for offering event contracts without registering as an exchange, and to wind down the markets that did not comply. polymarket.com does not allow US residents to trade, and US users now have Polymarket US instead.

No platform is risk-free. Risks include:

• smart-contract bugs (rare but possible)
• disputed or surprising resolutions
• regulatory changes and new country restrictions
• thin markets that are easy to move
• account takeover if you share your login code or seed phrase
• pUSD depends on USDC and on the contracts that back it
• you can lose your entire stake: a losing share is worth $0

Legal Status by Region

Access rules change, so treat this as a snapshot from September 2026:

• United States: polymarket.com is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is the CFTC-regulated alternative; its app listing says it is 18+ and not available in all jurisdictions.
• Elsewhere: Polymarket's help center lists 39 restricted countries, including the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Australia, Singapore, Brazil and Venezuela. In Canada, Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia and Alberta are restricted.
• VPNs: Polymarket's Terms of Use prohibit using one to get around restrictions.

For the careful legal overview, read Is Polymarket Legal in the US?. For the practical country view, use the prediction market availability overview.

Risk Factors

Before trading on any prediction market:

1. Only use money you can afford to lose. Positions can go to zero.
2. Understand the resolution rules. Misreading them is a very common beginner mistake.
3. Check liquidity. Low liquidity means wider spreads and more manipulation risk.
4. Verify access. Make sure Polymarket is available where you are.
5. Secure your account. Never share your login code or seed phrase.

Polymarket Fees and Costs

Polymarket charges no deposit or withdrawal fee, although intermediaries such as Coinbase or MoonPay may charge their own. Trading fees apply only to orders that fill immediately (takers), using the formula fee = shares × fee rate × price × (1 - price):

Source: Polymarket's fee documentation, September 2026.

What else to know:

• Makers pay nothing. Limit orders that rest on the book are never charged, and Polymarket returns 15% to 25% of taker fees to makers as rebates.
• Gas is handled for you. Polymarket relays wallet transactions, so you do not need POL to trade.
• The spread can cost more than the fee. In thin markets, crossing a wide gap between bid and ask is often the biggest cost.
• Polymarket US has its own schedule: a taker fee of up to $1.74 per 100 contracts at 50¢ since September 17, 2026, with a rebate for makers.

For the full breakdown, read Polymarket Fees Explained and Prediction Market Fees Comparison.

Common Beginner Mistakes

Learn from others:

1. Not reading resolution rules

This is one of the most common mistakes. Traders assume they understand the market, then find the rules define something more narrowly than they expected.

2. Confusing probability with certainty

A 90% outcome still fails about 1 time in 10. Do not bet your savings on "sure things".

3. Overtrading

Every market order pays a taker fee and the spread. Be selective.

4. Chasing hype

A trending market does not mean you have an edge. Do your own research.

5. Ignoring liquidity

Thin markets have wide spreads and are easier to manipulate. Stick to liquid markets while learning.

6. Emotional trading

Do not revenge-trade after a loss. Stick to your research.

7. Poor position sizing

Size each position so that losing all of it would not hurt. Spread risk across markets instead of betting everything on one.

8. Forgetting costs

Taker fees, spread, and card or exchange fees add up. Make sure your expected edge is bigger than your costs.

Why Use CoinRithm for Prediction Markets

You can go straight to Polymarket, but CoinRithm adds research tools around it:

Use CoinRithm to:

1. Discover markets across categories and venues
2. Compare outcomes, prices, and trends
3. Read resolution rules before committing
4. Practice with mock money, or let an AI agent paper trade for you
5. Open the market on Polymarket when you are ready

Related: learn risk-free trading with our Complete Guide to Crypto Paper Trading.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Polymarket in simple terms?

Polymarket is a prediction market: a platform where you buy and sell Yes or No shares on real-world events such as elections, sports, crypto prices and economic data. Share prices run from 1¢ to 99¢ and work as the crowd's probability estimate. If your outcome happens, each share pays $1; if not, it pays nothing. You trade with other users, not against a bookmaker.

How does Polymarket work?

Polymarket lists a market with a question, rules and an end date. Traders buy and sell Yes and No shares on an order book, so prices move as news arrives. When the event ends, the outcome is proposed to UMA's Optimistic Oracle, and if nobody disputes it within 2 hours the market resolves. Winning shares are then redeemed for $1 each in pUSD, and losing shares expire worthless.

Is Polymarket safe and legit?

Polymarket is a real, large platform: it has operated since 2020, received $1.6 billion in direct investment from NYSE owner ICE, and runs a CFTC-regulated US product. It is non-custodial, and its 2026 exchange contracts were audited by Cantina and Quantstamp. Risks remain, including smart-contract bugs, disputed resolutions, thin markets and changing rules. You can lose your whole stake, so trade only what you can afford to lose.

Is Polymarket legal in the US?

US residents cannot trade on polymarket.com, which settled with the CFTC in 2022 for offering unregistered event contracts. They can use Polymarket US instead, a separate exchange that the CFTC designated as a contract market in July 2025. It requires identity verification, trades in US dollars, and its app listing says it is not available in all jurisdictions. Our guide on whether Polymarket is legal in the US covers the details.

What is the difference between Polymarket and Polymarket US?

polymarket.com is the international, crypto-based site: you sign up with email, Google or a wallet, fund it with crypto (or a card via MoonPay where offered), and hold pUSD on Polygon. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated exchange for US residents: it requires identity verification, is funded in US dollars by debit card, bank transfer or wire, and runs on its own apps and polymarket.us. The accounts are not connected.

What is pUSD on Polymarket?

pUSD (Polymarket USD) is the token Polymarket has used as trading collateral since its April 28, 2026 exchange upgrade. It is a standard ERC-20 token on Polygon, backed 1:1 by USDC, with the backing enforced by smart contract. Deposits are converted to pUSD automatically, and withdrawals convert back to USDC by default. Polymarket says it has no current plans to list pUSD on external exchanges.

How does Polymarket make money?

The clearest source is trading fees. Since March 30, 2026, orders that fill immediately pay a taker fee on most categories, and Polymarket passes 15% to 25% of those fees back to market makers as rebates. Polymarket US and Polymarket Perps charge their own trading fees, and Polymarket has a data deal under which ICE distributes Polymarket signals to institutional investors. Deposits, withdrawals and geopolitics markets stay fee-free.

Is Polymarket gambling?

It depends on who you ask. Polymarket is built like an exchange: you trade with other users, prices come from supply and demand, and you can sell before the result. But gambling laws still matter: Polymarket's help center lists them among the reasons it restricts access in some countries. Whatever the label, you can lose all the money you put in, so treat it as a high-risk activity.

How accurate is Polymarket?

Fairly accurate, but not perfect. CoinRithm's calibration page scored 1,016 resolved Polymarket events 24 hours before resolution and measured an average calibration error of 2.47 percentage points as of September 29, 2026. Outcomes priced between 90% and 100% averaged 96.1% and happened 96.7% of the time. Even so, a 90% price still fails about 1 time in 10, so treat prices as probabilities, not guarantees.

What is the difference between Polymarket and Kalshi?

Kalshi is a US exchange regulated by the CFTC as a designated contract market. polymarket.com is a crypto-based international platform that does not allow US residents to trade, although Polymarket now also runs its own CFTC-regulated exchange for the US, Polymarket US. The two often list different markets and price the same event differently, so compare them side by side on CoinRithm and read our Kalshi vs Polymarket guide before choosing.

Conclusion

Polymarket turns real-world questions into tradable prices. In 2026 it gained a CFTC-regulated US product, a new balance token (pUSD), and trading fees on most categories. Understanding which product you can use, how prices map to probabilities, and how rules decide resolution matters more than any single trade.

Your action plan:

1. Start with CoinRithm: browse Prediction Markets to see what is active
2. Pick a category you already know well
3. Read the resolution rules before every trade
4. Practice with mock money before risking real funds
5. Start small and review your results over time

Remember:

• Prediction markets are for research and forecasting, not guaranteed profits
• High probabilities can still be wrong
• Only trade what you can afford to lose
• Use CoinRithm for discovery and practice, and Polymarket for real trading only where it is available to you

Next Step

Browse live markets first: CoinRithm Prediction Markets.

Need the step-by-step workflow? Read How to Use Polymarket.

Need the deposit setup? Read Polymarket Deposit Methods and Supported Chains.

Need the access and restrictions view? Read Polymarket Countries and Availability.

Need the comparison layer? Read Kalshi vs Polymarket or Best Prediction Markets in 2026.

Last Updated: September 29, 2026

Disclaimer: Prediction markets involve financial risk. This guide is for educational purposes only and is not financial, legal, or investment advice. CoinRithm is not affiliated with Polymarket or Polymarket US and offers paper trading only. Verify the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before participating, and only trade money you can afford to lose.