Will the US government force another frontier AI model shutdown for allied users by mid-2027?
Middle EastOne-OffTechChinaEuropeAIRussia / UkraineRegulationUS Politics9mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 50%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJul 17, 26, 11:52 AM UTCJun 29, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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In June 2026, a US Commerce Department export-control directive forced Anthropic to suspend Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all foreign nationals, producing a 19-day global outage before controls were lifted on June 30.
- This market asks whether the mechanism fires again in near future for the same or different frontier models.
- Resolves YES if:
- between market creation and June 30, 2027, ALL of the following occur:
- Government-mandated.
- A US government body orders or legally compels a US-based AI developer to suspend or restrict access to one of its models.