How will the structural similarity of the three frontier AI safety frameworks (Anthropic RSP, OpenAI Preparedness, GDM F

MiningOne-OffAI Tech11mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Jul 19, 2026, 5:20 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3

Current community forecast

Converge — similarity score ≥ 22/30 52.9%+19.6pt

Leader of 3 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 10 days ago

Stale

Jul 18, 26, 3:52 AMJun 30, 27, 4:59 AM

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Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Converge — similarity score ≥ 22/3053%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

Resolves to the option matching the total pairwise structural similarity score of the endpoint snapshot (frameworks as published on 2027-06-30), per the pre-registered coding scheme published at Audit Motion 003|三大前沿安全框架,正在收斂還是分化?

Baseline (2026-07-18): 19/30.
Scoring: 5 dimensions (capability threshold definition, deployment-halt triggers, external verification role, disclosure obligations, amendment governance) × 3 framework pairs (Anthropic–OpenAI, Anthropic–GDM, OpenAI–GDM), each scored 0–2.
Converge = ≥ 22 (baseline +3); Diverge = ≤ 16 (baseline −3); No significant change = 17–21.
The coding scheme, per-cell criteria, and baseline scores were published before market creation and are frozen.
Endpoint scoring uses identical criteria.

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Jul 182d of dataJul 19

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Rules

Baseline (2026-07-18): 19/30.
Scoring: 5 dimensions (capability threshold definition, deployment-halt triggers, external verification role, disclosure obligations, amendment governance) × 3 framework pairs (Anthropic–OpenAI, Anthropic–GDM, OpenAI–GDM), each scored 0–2.
Converge = ≥ 22 (baseline +3); Diverge = ≤ 16 (baseline −3); No significant change = 17–21.
The coding scheme, per-cell criteria, and baseline scores were published before market creation and are frozen.
Endpoint scoring uses identical criteria.