Current community forecast
No 82%
Forecasters
33
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleDec 30, 23, 10:14 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Quantum computing has the possibility to break encryption as we know it.
- The widely used encryption methods, including RSA, AES, ECC, SHA-256, and HMAC, face unprecedented challenges.
- This question resolves YES if, by 2030, quantum computing successfully decrypts and exploits data secured by at least one of the mentioned encryption methods, leading to a substantial breach in the user data of a major company.
- This question resolves NO if, by 2030, none of the commonly employed encryption methods are breached and exploited by quantum computing.
