Current community forecast
No 70.9%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleApr 8, 25, 8:57 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich major technology company will make the most significant quantum computing breakthrough by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computing CEO go to jail before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow many critical severity cyber vulnerabilities will be found in December 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market assesses whether quantum computers will demonstrate a practical advantage in cryptographic applications before January 1, 2030.
- Resolution criteria: - YES: A quantum computer successfully breaks a currently secure encryption standard (like RSA-2048) OR demonstrates practical quantum-resistant cryptography capabilities that are deployed in production systems. - NO: No such practical advantage is demonstrated by the end of 2029.
- The achievement must be publicly verified by multiple reputable institutions.
