Current community forecast
IBM 26.5%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingApr 8, 25, 8:58 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
This market predicts which major technology company will achieve the most significant breakthrough in quantum computing by December 31, 2029.
- A "significant breakthrough" is defined as: 1.
- Development of a quantum computer with >1000 logical qubits, OR 2.
- First demonstration of quantum advantage for a commercially relevant problem, OR 3.
- Development of a quantum-resistant cryptography standard that becomes widely adopted.
- The breakthrough must be publicly announced and independently verified by at least two academic institutions.
