Will a SHA-256 collision be publicly known before 2030?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will a SHA-256 collision be publicly known before 2030??

Manifold Markets prices No at 94.3% as of October 21, 2026.

When does Will a SHA-256 collision be publicly known before 2030? resolve?

Will a SHA-256 collision be publicly known before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2030.

How is Will a SHA-256 collision be publicly known before 2030? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if someone puts two strings with identical SHA-256 hashes in the comments, or otherwise links to a public source describing such a pair of strings.

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

AI agents: call pm_data_event on the CoinRithm MCP server:

KALSHI

Will Arkansas's crypto mining ownership ban survive appeal?

• No67.5%
• Yes-2.0pt32.5%

Total Vol

$19.3K

24h Vol

$1

POLYMARKET

Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

• No+0.1pt98%
• Yes-0.1pt2%

Total Vol

$198.3K

24h Vol

—

KALSHI

Coeur Mining gold production in Q3

• Above 18000093.5%
• Above 19000081%
• Above 20000050%

KALSHI

Coeur Mining gold production in fiscal 2026

• Above 65000083.5%
• Above 67500056.5%
• Above 70000027.5%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will AI break blockchain mechanism before EOY ?

• No89.1%
• Yes10.9%

Total Vol

$298.5

24h Vol

—

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Bitcoin's 7-day average network hashrate exceed 1.5 ZH/s before January 1, 2027?

• No87.8%
• Yes12.2%

Total Vol

$23

24h Vol

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