Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 82.3%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleApr 9, 26, 8:48 PM UTCMar 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This Question resolves YES if METR makes it known publicly that an AI model has an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks.
- It will resolve N/A if METR announces the end of time horizons or stops doing them.
- n/a if they don’t release a task that long
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $154.3K
- 24h Vol
- $116.6K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.5M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $374.6K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.0pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks by April 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 82% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks by April 2027? resolve?
- Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks by April 2027? is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2027.
- How is Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks by April 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This Question resolves YES if METR makes it known publicly that an AI model has an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks.