Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks by April 2027?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks by April 2027??

Manifold Markets prices No at 75.9% as of October 27, 2026.

When does Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks by April 2027? resolve?

Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks by April 2027? is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2027.

How is Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks by April 2027? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This Question resolves YES if METR makes it known publicly that an AI model has an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks.

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KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+0.9pt59.5%
• Gemini-0.9pt29.2%
• ChatGPT+1.0pt7.5%

+5 more outcomes

Total Vol

$15.7M

24h Vol

$139.1K

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+10.7pt97%
• Anthropic-7.6pt3%
• Alibaba-0.1pt0%

+18 more outcomes

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027+1.0pt96.5%
• Before Mar 1, 202795%
• Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt93%

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+1.6pt95%
• December 15,92%
• November 25,+4.0pt87%

+15 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+2.0pt31.4%
• $2.0–$2.25T+2.2pt23.5%
• $1.5–$1.75T+0.1pt17.6%

+7 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Anthropic+2.0pt56.6%
• Google-1.0pt35.4%
• OpenAI+0.8pt6.1%

+12 more outcomes

• OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
• What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO?
• Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
• Best AI in Oct 2026?
• GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
• Moonshot AI share of spend on Oct 28, 2026 (Vercel)