Will METR retire the 50% Time Horizon by EOY 2026

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will METR retire the 50% Time Horizon by EOY 2026?

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 85.1% as of October 26, 2026.

When does Will METR retire the 50% Time Horizon by EOY 2026 resolve?

Will METR retire the 50% Time Horizon by EOY 2026 is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.

How is Will METR retire the 50% Time Horizon by EOY 2026 settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve Yes if METR removes or no longer updates the 50% Time Horizon from their Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI Models benchmark.

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POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+11.0pt94%
• December 15,+9.5pt91%
• November 30,+28.0pt89%

+15 more outcomes

Total Vol

$5.9M

24h Vol

$365.4K

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027+3.0pt95.5%
• Before Mar 1, 2027+4.0pt95%
• Before Jan 1, 2027+14.0pt

KALSHI

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Kansas?

• Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime+19.0pt99.5%
• America First+61.0pt99.5%
• American Dream+65.0pt

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T28.6%
• $2.0–$2.25T+4.3pt22.9%
• $1.5–$1.75T-2.2pt16.2%

+7 more outcomes

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+4.8pt60%
• Gemini-1.0pt30.1%
• ChatGPT-0.7pt

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Anthropic+4.0pt57%
• Google-1.0pt33%
• OpenAI+0.1pt6%

+12 more outcomes

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• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• Which company has the best AI model end of October?
• What will Anthropic's public ticker be?
• GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• In which month will Anthropic IPO?
• Best AI this week
• What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
• Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?