What are the current odds for Will AI break blockchain mechanism before EOY ??

Manifold Markets prices No at 89.1% as of October 20, 2026.

How is Will AI break blockchain mechanism before EOY ? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 89.1%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 3 hours ago

Stale

Oct 15, 26, 5:34 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, before December 31 at 11:59 PM UTC, a confirmed security advisory, peer-reviewed publication, or public proof-of-concept demonstrates that an AI system or AI-derived mathematical algorithm has broken a core cryptographic primitive or consensus mechanism of a major public blockchain (e.g., Bitcoin or Ethereum).
To resolve to YES, the event must satisfy at least one of the following criteria:
Private Key Recovery: A practical method derived via AI that allows recovering a private key from an exposed public key for standard signature schemes (e.g., ECDSA or Schnorr) using available classical hardware.
Hash Function Break: A viable preimage or collision attack against hash functions used by major chains (e.g., SHA-256 or Keccak-256) enabled by AI mathematical breakthroughs.
Consensus Break: A functional protocol-level attack generated or executed via AI that breaks double-spend protection or block validation on a top-20 cryptocurrency network without acquiring majority hash power or stake.