Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:13 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 83.3%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleAug 23, 26, 7:23 PM UTCJun 30, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the federal "Frontier Risk Oversight, National Transparency, Independent Evaluation, and Reporting Act" (commonly known as the FRONTIER Act, introduced as H.R. 9925 in the 119th Congress, or any substantially similar federal legislation under the same name or serving as its direct successor) is enacted into law by the United States federal government on or before July 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM UTC.
- "Enacted into law" requires that the bill is signed by the President of the United States, is passed over a presidential veto, or otherwise becomes law through constitutional processes.
- If no such federal legislation is enacted into law by the deadline, this market will resolve to NO.
- The primary source of truth for the status of the legislation is the official United States Congress tracking page at Congress.gov.
- Note: California's state-level "Transparency in Frontier Artificial Intelligence Act" (SB 53), which was signed into law in September 2025, does not satisfy the resolution of this market.
