Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 70%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJul 8, 26, 8:01 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
GAAIA is a bipartisan bill in Congress being proposed by Jay Obernolte (R-CA) and Lori Trahan (D-MA).
- Here is an article about the substance by Charlie Bullock: https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/congress-should-do-something--the-case-for-(fixing)-the-great-american-ai-act
- I can't really figure out what the status is.
- This market uses an expansive definition of "become law".
- It resolves YES if the bill is passed and becomes law in 2026, even if it is somewhat watered down or modified, as long as it remains an AI regulation and/or preemption bill.
- It also resolves YES if the bill's substantive provisions are fully folded into another bill which becomes law, though it resolves NO if only super dumb and toothless provisions make it in.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Great American AI Act (GAAIA) become law in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 70% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the Great American AI Act (GAAIA) become law in 2026? resolve?
- Will the Great American AI Act (GAAIA) become law in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will the Great American AI Act (GAAIA) become law in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: GAAIA is a bipartisan bill in Congress being proposed by Jay Obernolte (R-CA) and Lori Trahan (D-MA).