Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 86.6%
No 86.6%Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleDec 23, 25, 12:16 AM UTCDec 31, 50, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that the United States conducts the first qualifying military attack against a NATO member state (as defined below) before the Russian Federation conducts the first qualifying military attack against a NATO member state, at any time after this market is created and before the N/A date.
- How it resolves
- YES: The first qualifying attack on any NATO member state is attributable to the United States, and it occurs before any qualifying Russian attack.
- NO: The first qualifying attack on any NATO member state is attributable to the Russian Federation, and it occurs before any qualifying U.S. attack.
- N/A (in 2050): Resolves N/A on 2050-12-31 23:59 UTC if neither the United States nor the Russian Federation has carried out a qualifying military attack against any NATO member state by that time.
- Key definitions (for resolution)