Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 50.5%
Forecasters
40
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleNov 25, 23, 11:48 PM UTCDec 31, 33, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Russia attack a NATO member in 2026?
FutuurWill the US attack a NATO member, and will Trump be impeached and removed from office?
Manifold MarketsWill the US attack a NATO country before Russia does?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia attack Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia) by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill russia attack and/or occupy european NATO area until EOY2029? And if so, where will that happen first?
Manifold MarketsNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketRules
The German Council on Foreign Relations (German: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik, DGAP) is a prominent Germany foreign policy research institute and they are concerned about a russian attack:
- With its imperial ambitions, Russia represents the greatest and most urgent threat to NATO countries.
- Once intensive fighting will have ended in Ukraine, the regime in Moscow may need as little as six to ten years to reconstitute its armed forces. -DGAP
- While it isn't clear when "intensive fighting will have ended in Ukraine", let's try with roughly a 10 year period from now.
- Resolves YES when Russia intentionally attacks a NATO member.
- Accidents like a misfired missiles are not sufficient.