FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
No 88%
No 88%Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
$1K
Low liquidityTraders
6
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Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
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PolymarketRules
This event predicts whether Russian armed forces will carry out kinetic military action within the territory of a NATO member state at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive).
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official confirmations by NATO, the attacked state, or the Russian government acknowledging such action.
- If Russia conducts kinetic military action inside the territory of a NATO member during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Cyber operations, electronic warfare, accidental incidents promptly acknowledged as such, or mere troop deployments will not count.
- If official confirmations are ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations.