[Metaculus] Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineEurope3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 88.6%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleMar 21, 24, 6:56 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21548/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
- This question will resolve as Yes if credible media sources report a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before January 1, 2027.
- For this question, a direct conflict would be defined as:
- Any presence of uniformed troops within the internationally recognized borders of a hostile state without permission (whether these are NATO soldiers within Russian borders, or Russian soldiers within the borders of any NATO member state.)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for [Metaculus] Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does [Metaculus] Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027? resolve?
- [Metaculus] Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is [Metaculus] Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?