[Metaculus] Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineEurope2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.5%
Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleMar 21, 24, 6:56 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Russia attack a NATO member in 2026?
FutuurIf China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030
Manifold MarketsIf China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030
Manifold MarketsWill there be a direct Morrocco-UK power cable operating by end of 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill there be direct state-action that results in a reduction of HRT insurance coverage for adults before 2029 in the US
Manifold MarketsWill U.S. direct flights to Russia resume?
KalshiRules
Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21548/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
- This question will resolve as Yes if credible media sources report a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before January 1, 2027.
- For this question, a direct conflict would be defined as:
- Any presence of uniformed troops within the internationally recognized borders of a hostile state without permission (whether these are NATO soldiers within Russian borders, or Russian soldiers within the borders of any NATO member state.)
