If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030
GeopoliticsOne-OffChina4y
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Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 4:28 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 55.3%
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97
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleApr 9, 23, 8:12 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 12:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
Resolves Yes if US directly uses it's military force against China
- Resolves No otherwise
- Resolves N/A if by close date China has not invaded Taiwan
- "Invasion" is any attempt to establish a ground presence on the island of Taiwan with military force.
- If China attempted a landing on Taiwan but was entirely thwarted by a US attack this would still resolve Yes