When the PRC invades Taiwan will they preemptively attack US, British, Japanese, Kiwi, and/or Australian military/intelligence assets in the region?
GeopoliticsOne-OffChina4y
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Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:45 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 58.8%
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54
Question type
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
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Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingAug 8, 22, 1:08 AM UTCDec 15, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
Market will remain open until the PLA invasion has commenced and will resolve YES if the PLA strikes Taiwan's allies preemptively.
- Resolves NO if the Allies strike PLA targets before being hit themselves or if a declaration of war has been formally issued by the government of any party on either side.
- So if the PLA declares war on the Allies and then strikes first it would resolve NO.
- Only preemptive, unannounced precision strikes against high value assets will resolve YES.