KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 89%
Market quality
62 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$157.7
Liquidity
$6.5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
8.4% / 11.0%
Spread
2.6 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Dec 3, 25, 11:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Russia and Ukraine hold direct peace talks before November 1, 2026?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Nord Stream resume operations by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
PolymarketPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
PolymarketRules
If a U.S. airline begins offering a direct flight to Russia before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:the Associated PressReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBC
- Announcements that it will begin offering direct flights within the year is also encompassed.
Open markets
Russia / UkrainePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $549.5K
POLYMARKETRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
- United Russia (ER)+0.6pt100%
- Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)-0.1pt0%
- A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)0%
+5 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 2027-1.0pt14%
- December-1.0pt7%
- September 30,-0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Yulia Navalnaya8%
- UNRWA+0.5pt8%
- International Court of Justice-1.8pt6%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUnited Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?
- 325–339-0.5pt37.1%
- 340–354+2.0pt24.7%
- 310–324-5.0pt22.7%
POLYMARKETBank of Russia decision in September?
- No Change-1.0pt68.7%
- Decrease+1.5pt28.3%
- Increase-1.1pt3%
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
- Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
- Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will U.S. direct flights to Russia resume??
- Kalshi prices No at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will U.S. direct flights to Russia resume? resolve?
- Will U.S. direct flights to Russia resume? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will U.S. direct flights to Russia resume? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If a U.S. airline begins offering a direct flight to Russia before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.