Will Russia and Ukraine hold direct peace talks before November 1, 2026?
One-OffRussia / UkraineGeopolitics1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 74.8%
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5
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 3 minutes ago
Sep 6, 26, 8:24 AM UTCNov 1, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
On September 5, 2026, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin for about five hours and then travelled on to Kyiv.
- Their stated goal was to restart direct Russia-Ukraine negotiations, which have been suspended for six months.
- Russia and Ukraine agreed to a three-day pause on strikes against Kyiv and Moscow so the American delegation could travel safely between the two capitals.
- No agreement came out of the Kremlin meeting; Putin said he has "full trust" in US mediation.
- This market asks whether the two governments actually sit down together.
- RESOLVES YES if, on or before 2026-10-31 23:59 UTC, Reuters or the Associated Press reports that officials representing the government of Russia and officials representing the government of Ukraine met IN PERSON, in the same room, at talks whose reported subject includes ending the war, a ceasefire, or a peace settlement. - The seniority of the delegations does not matter. - A meeting mediated or attended by third parties (the United States, Turkey, others) still counts, so long as Russian and Ukrainian officials are both physically present.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Russia and Ukraine hold direct peace talks before November 1, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Russia and Ukraine hold direct peace talks before November 1, 2026? resolve?
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold direct peace talks before November 1, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on November 1, 2026.
- How is Will Russia and Ukraine hold direct peace talks before November 1, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: On September 5, 2026, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin for about five hours and then travelled on to Kyiv.