Will Russia and Ukraine hold direct peace talks before November 1, 2026?
One-OffRussia / UkraineGeopolitics2d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97.1%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 40 minutes ago
Sep 6, 26, 8:24 AM UTCNov 1, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
On September 5, 2026, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin for about five hours and then travelled on to Kyiv.
- Their stated goal was to restart direct Russia-Ukraine negotiations, which have been suspended for six months.
- Russia and Ukraine agreed to a three-day pause on strikes against Kyiv and Moscow so the American delegation could travel safely between the two capitals.
- No agreement came out of the Kremlin meeting; Putin said he has "full trust" in US mediation.
- This market asks whether the two governments actually sit down together.
- RESOLVES YES if, on or before 2026-10-31 23:59 UTC, Reuters or the Associated Press reports that officials representing the government of Russia and officials representing the government of Ukraine met IN PERSON, in the same room, at talks whose reported subject includes ending the war, a ceasefire, or a peace settlement.
