Will russia attack and/or occupy european NATO area until EOY2029? And if so, where will that happen first?
PoliticsGeopolitics3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:18 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNot on NATO area/Not at all 70%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
13
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleMay 23, 25, 4:15 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the first European NATO member state that Russia attacks and/or occupies between May 23, 2025, and December 31, 2029.
- An "attack" is defined as a military assault involving Russian armed forces crossing into the territory of a NATO member state. "Occupation" refers to Russian forces establishing control over any part of a NATO member state's territory.
- The market will resolve based on credible reports from reputable news organizations or official government statements confirming such an event.
- If no such attack or occupation occurs by the end of 2029, the market will resolve to "the named outcome."
- Tensions between Russia and NATO have escalated in recent years, particularly following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
