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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Where will the US attack in 2026? [add your answer]
Manifold Markets

Where will the US attack in 2026? [add your answer]

PoliticsAIGeopolitics6mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Iran 100%
Leader of 43 outcomes
Forecasters

262

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 4 days ago

Stale
Jan 6, 26, 11:14 AMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Greenland7%

Rules

###Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market resolves YES for any place where the US conducts military strikes, airstrikes, drone strikes, or armed military operations during 2026.
  • Resolution is based on official US government statements, credible news reporting from major outlets, or documented military action.
  • The US has already conducted a large-scale strike on Venezuela on January 3, 2026, capturing President Nicolás Maduro, so Venezuela would resolve YES if it is attacked again.
  • For an answer to resolve YES, there must be documented evidence of kinetic military action (strikes, raids, or armed operations) rather than non-military interventions, sanctions, or covert operations alone.
  • Multiple countries can resolve YES simultaneously.

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Rules

###Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market resolves YES for any place where the US conducts military strikes, airstrikes, drone strikes, or armed military operations during 2026.
  • Resolution is based on official US government statements, credible news reporting from major outlets, or documented military action.
  • The US has already conducted a large-scale strike on Venezuela on January 3, 2026, capturing President Nicolás Maduro, so Venezuela would resolve YES if it is attacked again.
  • For an answer to resolve YES, there must be documented evidence of kinetic military action (strikes, raids, or armed operations) rather than non-military interventions, sanctions, or covert operations alone.
  • Multiple countries can resolve YES simultaneously.