Where will the US attack in 2026? [add your answer]
PoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineLatin AmericaMiddle EastGeopoliticsAI3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastIran 100%Leader of 40 outcomes
Forecasters
265
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jan 6, 26, 11:14 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will happen in the 2026 US Midterm Elections (add your own!)
Manifold MarketsF1 World Drivers’ Champion 2026 (Add your answers)
Manifold MarketsIsraeli Politics 2026 Prop Bets [add your predictions]
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketWill a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
PolymarketNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketRules
###Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES for any place where the US conducts military strikes, airstrikes, drone strikes, or armed military operations during 2026.
- Resolution is based on official US government statements, credible news reporting from major outlets, or documented military action.
- The US has already conducted a large-scale strike on Venezuela on January 3, 2026, capturing President Nicolás Maduro, so Venezuela would resolve YES if it is attacked again.
- For an answer to resolve YES, there must be documented evidence of kinetic military action (strikes, raids, or armed operations) rather than non-military interventions, sanctions, or covert operations alone.
- Multiple countries can resolve YES simultaneously.
