Where will the US attack in 2026? [add your answer]
PoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineLatin AmericaMiddle EastGeopoliticsAI1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastIran 100%Leader of 40 outcomes
Forecasters
269
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 53 minutes ago
LaggingJan 6, 26, 11:14 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
###Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES for any place where the US conducts military strikes, airstrikes, drone strikes, or armed military operations during 2026.
- Resolution is based on official US government statements, credible news reporting from major outlets, or documented military action.
- The US has already conducted a large-scale strike on Venezuela on January 3, 2026, capturing President Nicolás Maduro, so Venezuela would resolve YES if it is attacked again.
- For an answer to resolve YES, there must be documented evidence of kinetic military action (strikes, raids, or armed operations) rather than non-military interventions, sanctions, or covert operations alone.
- Multiple countries can resolve YES simultaneously.
