What are the current odds for Will South Korea acquire nuclear weapons before 2031??

Manifold Markets prices No at 83% as of September 9, 2026.

Will South Korea acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?

One-OffGeopolitics Middle East China Latin America South Asia4y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 83%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 7 hours ago

Stale

Feb 9, 24, 1:37 PM UTCMar 1, 31, 10:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

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Rules

Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that South Korea has acquired at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st 2031.

This device must be under the sovereign control of the South Korean State, and they must have the ability to use it independently.
Different countries:
@/RemNi/will-japan-acquire-nuclear-weapons
@/RemNi/will-australia-acquire-nuclear-weap
@/RemNi/will-south-korea-acquire-nuclear-we (this question)

Report a data issue with this market

Will South Korea acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?

One-OffGeopolitics Middle East China Latin America South Asia4y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 83%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 7 hours ago

Stale

Feb 9, 24, 1:37 PM UTCMar 1, 31, 10:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Related Markets

Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

Will Iran acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?

Manifold Markets

Will Germany acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?

Manifold Markets

Will Turkey acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?

Manifold Markets

What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit Week of September 7 2026?

Polymarket

What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in September 2026?

Polymarket

Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

Polymarket

Rules

Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that South Korea has acquired at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st 2031.

This device must be under the sovereign control of the South Korean State, and they must have the ability to use it independently.
Different countries:
@/RemNi/will-japan-acquire-nuclear-weapons
@/RemNi/will-australia-acquire-nuclear-weap
@/RemNi/will-south-korea-acquire-nuclear-we (this question)

Report a data issue with this market

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will South Korea acquire nuclear weapons before 2031??: Manifold Markets prices No at 83% as of September 9, 2026.
When does Will South Korea acquire nuclear weapons before 2031? resolve?: Will South Korea acquire nuclear weapons before 2031? is scheduled to resolve on March 1, 2031.
How is Will South Korea acquire nuclear weapons before 2031? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that South Korea has acquired at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st 2031.

Will South Korea acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?

Will South Korea acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?

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